#11Carson Beck

QB·Georgia·2025 2024 20236.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Carson Beck is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Georgia. Carson's 2024 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 496 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carson Beck's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

290/448 Comp/Att3485 Pass yards28 Pass TD12 INT64.7% Comp %

Rushing

71 Rush yards1 Rush TD55 Carries1.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat46
Consistency74
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.72 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Tennessee Tech.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsClemson	W34-3	13.3	23/33	278	2	0	91.7	19	0	0.52
2	vsTennessee Tech	W48-3	—	18/25	242	5	0	83.0	18	0	0.72
3	@Kentucky	W13-12	5.5	15/24	160	0	0	69.8	18	0	0.28
5	@Alabama	L34-41	25.0	27/50	439	3	3	70.1	9	0	0.25
6	vsAuburn	W31-13	9.5	23/29	240	2	0	89.2	-15	0	0.52
7	vsMississippi State	W41-31	-4.1	36/48	459	3	2	75.1	8	0	0.56
8	@Texas	W30-15	24.1	23/41	175	0	3	64.3	8	0	-0.11
10	vsFlorida	W34-20	13.8	25/40	309	2	3	61.0	-6	0	0.20
11	@Ole Miss	L10-28	27.9	20/31	186	0	1	55.9	-20	0	-0.20
12	vsTennessee	W31-17	22.0	25/40	347	2	0	98.0	32	1	0.69
13	vsMassachusetts	W59-21	-21.9	20/31	297	4	0	90.7	5	0	0.42
14	vsGeorgia Tech	W44-42	1.9	28/43	297	5	0	82.2	10	0	0.44
15	vsTexas	W22-19	24.1	7/13	56	0	0	59.4	-15	0	-0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.0%

Passing plays

92.9%

Rushing plays

11.9%

Standard downs

50.9%

Passing downs

72.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 43 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	Georgia	10.6	0.605	—	283.3
2024	Georgia	6.8	0.448	-0.16	225.6
2025	Miami	6.5	0.412	-0.04	203.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.