#5Brennan Armstrong

QB·NC State·2023 2021

Brennan Armstrong is a Dual-Threat QB for NC State. Brennan's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 385 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brennan Armstrong's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

160/262 Comp/Att1783 Pass yards11 Pass TD7 INT61.1% Comp %

Rushing

665 Rush yards7 Rush TD143 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat84
Consistency25
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency25th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.24 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Miami (SP+ 10).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@UConn	W24-14	-15.6	17/26	155	0	0	65.0	96	2	0.31
2	vsNotre Dame	L24-45	20.1	22/47	260	2	3	26.8	26	1	0.12
3	vsVMI	W45-7	—	27/32	264	1	0	82.1	39	0	0.61
4	@Virginia	W24-21	-10.8	15/30	180	2	1	48.7	64	0	0.25
5	vsLouisville	L10-13	8.0	13/25	112	0	2	13.7	61	0	-0.20
6	vsMarshall	W48-41	-9.0	—	—	—	—	—	-5	0	-0.68
9	vsClemson	W24-17	10.5	—	—	—	—	—	5	0	-0.54
10	vsMiami	W20-6	9.6	—	—	—	—	—	51	0	0.78
11	@Wake Forest	W26-6	-7.9	12/17	111	1	0	98.0	96	1	0.36
12	@Virginia Tech	W35-28	5.8	18/26	203	2	0	91.1	89	2	0.45
13	vsNorth Carolina	W39-20	7.4	22/31	334	3	0	82.6	22	0	0.49
20	vsKansas State	L19-28	16.2	14/28	164	0	1	67.0	121	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.5%

Passing plays

78.7%

Rushing plays

30.1%

Standard downs

47.6%

Passing downs

59.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.32

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.