#10Bo Nix

QB·Auburn·2023 2022 2020 20195.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Bo Nix is a 4-year Dual-Threat QB for Auburn. Bo's 2019 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 463 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Bo's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Bo Nix's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2019

★★★★★

5-Star · Blue chip

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9856
National rank: #33
High school: Pinson Valley
Hometown: Pinson, AL

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2019 Production

Passing

217/377 Comp/Att2542 Pass yards16 Pass TD6 INT57.6% Comp %

Rushing

313 Rush yards7 Rush TD97 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Punting

3 Punts112 Punt yards37.3 Yards/punt42 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency18
Volume100
Dual-Threat70
Consistency70
Clutch94

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency70th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.12 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Mississippi State (SP+ 4).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsOregon	W27-21	19.0	13/31	177	2	2	44.8	42	0	0.02
2	vsTulane	W24-6	7.5	19/37	207	1	0	67.6	16	0	0.37
3	vsKent State	W55-16	-10.2	12/16	161	1	0	82.5	21	1	0.38
4	@Texas A&M	W28-20	15.0	12/20	100	1	0	40.6	38	0	0.22
5	vsMississippi State	W56-23	3.5	16/21	335	2	0	99.2	56	1	1.12
6	@Florida	L13-24	24.0	11/27	145	1	3	6.6	18	0	-0.19
8	@Arkansas	W51-10	-10.6	12/17	176	3	0	82.7	19	1	0.67
9	@LSU	L20-23	33.1	15/35	157	1	1	27.6	-16	1	0.09
10	vsOle Miss	W20-14	2.9	30/44	340	0	0	—	20	1	0.28
12	vsGeorgia	L14-21	26.8	30/50	245	1	0	—	42	1	0.12
13	vsSamford	W52-0	—	15/23	150	1	0	—	1	0	0.27
14	vsAlabama	W48-45	32.4	15/30	173	1	0	—	44	1	0.37
1	vsMinnesota	L24-31	19.4	17/26	176	1	0	—	12	0	0.32

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.5%

Passing plays

95.4%

Rushing plays

15.8%

Standard downs

41.3%

Passing downs

68.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2023 · 51 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Auburn	5.6	0.428	—	200.8
2020	Auburn	3.8	0.370	-0.06	178.5
2022	Oregon	11.2	0.557	+0.19	278.6
2023	Oregon	16.7	0.722	+0.16	390.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.