#5Blake Bortles

QB·UCF·20134.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Blake Bortles is a Dual-Threat QB for UCF. Blake's 2013 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 400 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Blake Bortles's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

259/382 Comp/Att3581 Pass yards25 Pass TD9 INT67.8% Comp %

Rushing

272 Rush yards6 Rush TD87 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency83
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency85
Clutch72

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (83th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Florida International (SP+ -39).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAkron	W38-7	-15.3	18/24	314	3	0	90.7	2	0	0.40
2	@Florida International	W38-0	-38.9	12/19	214	1	0	92.7	22	1	0.79
3	@Penn State	W34-31	8.9	20/27	288	3	1	94.9	5	0	0.48
5	vsSouth Carolina	L25-28	19.8	25/36	358	2	2	17.5	5	0	0.30
6	@Memphis	W24-17	-3.2	17/36	160	0	0	31.7	1	0	0.04
8	@Louisville	W38-35	24.2	21/32	250	2	1	63.9	16	0	0.24
9	vsUConn	W62-17	-13.2	20/24	286	4	0	97.9	26	1	0.41
11	vsHouston	W19-14	4.9	17/24	210	0	1	64.0	-10	0	0.40
12	@Temple	W39-36	-10.7	27/38	404	4	0	90.0	63	0	0.54
13	vsRutgers	W41-17	-8.1	21/30	335	1	0	96.3	32	1	0.75
14	vsSouth Florida	W23-20	-15.5	17/26	219	2	2	26.7	-14	0	0.28
15	@SMU	W17-13	-15.2	24/35	242	0	0	66.7	31	2	0.23
1	vsBaylor	W52-42	20.4	20/31	301	3	2	92.4	93	1	0.39

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.6%

Passing plays

92.3%

Rushing plays

13.8%

Standard downs

42.6%

Passing downs

67.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.58

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.