#14Ashton Daniels

QB·Stanford·2024

Ashton Daniels is a Dual-Threat QB for Stanford. Ashton's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 383 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ashton Daniels's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

170/271 Comp/Att1700 Pass yards10 Pass TD12 INT62.7% Comp %

Rushing

669 Rush yards3 Rush TD148 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat67
Consistency42
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency42th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.22 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.91 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs NC State (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTCU	L27-34	10.8	17/35	163	1	1	12.5	87	0	0.15
2	vsCal Poly	W41-7	—	19/23	221	2	0	61.5	31	0	0.37
4	@Syracuse	W26-24	5.5	23/38	178	1	2	37.8	45	0	0.10
5	@Clemson	L14-40	13.3	9/19	71	1	3	33.4	87	0	-0.32
7	@Notre Dame	L7-49	23.9	8/13	74	0	0	52.9	42	0	-0.10
8	vsSMU	L10-40	17.5	2/5	20	0	0	75.6	6	0	0.27
9	vsWake Forest	L24-27	-5.7	24/31	214	1	2	59.5	54	0	0.32
10	@NC State	L28-59	3.9	6/8	70	0	0	97.1	129	2	0.91
12	vsLouisville	W38-35	13.6	22/33	298	3	1	53.1	34	0	-0.03
13	@California	L21-24	4.0	14/26	139	0	0	45.2	63	0	-0.10
14	@San José State	L31-34	-5.5	26/40	252	1	3	59.8	91	1	0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.0%

Passing plays

67.7%

Rushing plays

36.0%

Standard downs

48.2%

Passing downs

59.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.01
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).