Arch Manning is a Dual-Threat QB for Texas. Arch's 2026 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 74 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.
2026 Usage Outlook · projected share of team plays
Regressed toward the QB mean. Model correlation r≈0.46 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Arch Manning's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2026 Production
Air yards
Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.
The ball travels 7.3 yards in the air on an average throw — 1.2 yards shorter than the median. Another 5.4 comes after the catch.
Where he throws
attempts · completion rate · yardsDepth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.
Performance Analysis · 2026 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency75
- Volume100
- Dual-Threat100
- Consistency50
- Clutch100
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (75th percentile).
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Texas State (SP+ -8).
NIL Market Tier· 2026
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.18
- Passing downs
- 0.80
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.49 / 0.47
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.