#15Alex Flinn

QB·East Carolina·2023

Alex Flinn is a Clutch Passer for East Carolina. Alex's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 367 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Alex Flinn's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

159/290 Comp/Att1558 Pass yards6 Pass TD12 INT54.8% Comp %

Rushing

178 Rush yards0 Rush TD97 Carries1.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat12
Consistency0
Clutch80

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.16 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.47 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Tulsa (SP+ -14).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
1	@Michigan	L3-30	31.3	6/11	52	0	0	69.5	14	0.30
2	vsMarshall	L13-31	-9.0	3/8	61	0	1	7.0	-10	0.02
3	@App State	L28-43	3.8	17/31	158	0	3	15.1	-4	0.20
4	vsGardner-Webb	W44-0	—	8/18	94	1	0	19.0	-5	-0.20
5	@Rice	L17-24	-10.2	21/44	246	0	1	27.4	21	0.03
7	vsSMU	L10-31	10.1	6/13	38	0	1	2.6	13	-0.68
8	vsCharlotte	L7-10	-21.4	11/18	69	1	0	21.7	-6	-0.09
9	@UTSA	L27-41	5.4	23/43	225	2	1	27.9	53	0.12
10	vsTulane	L10-13	2.8	10/18	120	0	0	20.6	4	0.07
11	@Florida Atlantic	W22-7	-9.4	18/30	156	0	1	25.5	16	0.12
12	@Navy	L0-10	-13.7	24/38	155	0	2	11.5	31	-0.07
13	vsTulsa	L27-29	-13.7	12/18	184	2	2	56.7	51	0.47

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.8%

Passing plays

75.3%

Rushing plays

19.9%

Standard downs

42.6%

Passing downs

59.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.04
Passing downs: 0.16
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.07 / -0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).