#6AJ Jones

WR·Middle Tennessee·2025

AJ Jones is a Versatile WR for Middle Tennessee. AJ's 2025 season produced 9.2 total EPA across 46 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So AJ Jones's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

28 Receptions216 Rec yards5 Rec TD7.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency67
Volume18
Explosiveness5
Consistency0
Pass-Down0

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)67th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.75 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.03 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsAustin Peay	L14-34	—	1	5	5.0	0	5	-0.03
3	@Nevada	W14-13	-13.4	—	—	—	—	—	-0.13
4	vsMarshall	L28-42	-4.5	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.59
5	@Kennesaw State	L16-24	-5.4	1	7	7.0	0	7	-1.01
7	vsMissouri State	L20-22	-10.7	5	22	4.4	0	5	-0.00
9	@Delaware	L28-31	-10.9	5	34	6.8	1	11	0.46
10	vsJacksonville State	L21-24	-6.7	2	15	7.5	0	12	-0.14
11	vsFlorida International	L30-56	-10.5	3	16	5.3	1	6	0.34
12	@Western Kentucky	L26-42	1.6	4	33	8.3	1	27	0.58
13	vsSam Houston	W31-17	-27.8	2	30	15.0	0	27	0.20
14	@New Mexico State	W31-24	-15.5	4	50	12.5	2	24	1.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.4%

Passing plays

10.1%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

6.0%

Passing downs

7.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: -0.10
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).