#5Adam Kennedy

QB·Arkansas State·20131.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Adam Kennedy is a Dual-Threat QB for Arkansas State. Adam's 2013 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 374 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Adam Kennedy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

218/315 Comp/Att2363 Pass yards11 Pass TD6 INT69.2% Comp %

Rushing

524 Rush yards4 Rush TD153 Carries3.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Dual-Threat70
Consistency79
Clutch92

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsArkansas-Pine Bluff	W62-11	—	9/12	149	1	0	89.7	—	—	0.75
2	@Auburn	L9-38	25.2	30/42	284	0	0	55.5	74	0	0.50
3	vsTroy	W41-34	-14.5	20/34	282	1	0	66.1	17	0	0.31
4	@Memphis	L7-31	-3.2	20/37	166	0	1	15.4	24	0	0.10
5	@Missouri	L19-41	19.3	37/46	318	1	1	76.3	26	0	0.47
7	vsIdaho	W48-24	-35.6	22/32	375	4	1	74.7	22	0	0.47
9	vsLouisiana	L7-23	-12.5	11/20	89	0	1	17.4	24	1	0.01
10	@South Alabama	W17-16	-10.2	15/17	136	0	0	82.2	65	1	0.54
11	@UL Monroe	W42-14	-26.2	16/23	235	1	0	83.9	102	2	0.44
12	vsTexas State	W38-21	-13.7	14/18	96	1	1	59.5	78	0	0.27
13	vsGeorgia State	W35-33	-32.6	14/19	152	2	0	43.4	77	0	0.20
14	@Western Kentucky	L31-34	-3.1	7/10	67	0	1	18.7	5	0	0.10
1	vsBall State	W23-20	7.5	3/5	14	0	0	9.7	10	0	-0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

44.3%

Passing plays

78.4%

Rushing plays

22.3%

Standard downs

37.3%

Passing downs

61.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.