#11Aaron Murray

QB·Georgia·20133.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Aaron Murray is a Dual-Threat QB for Georgia. Aaron's 2013 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 352 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Aaron Murray's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

225/347 Comp/Att3075 Pass yards26 Pass TD9 INT64.8% Comp %

Rushing

186 Rush yards7 Rush TD53 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency75
Volume100
Dual-Threat88
Consistency85
Clutch78

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)75th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (75th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.21 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs South Carolina (SP+ 20).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Clemson	L35-38	24.5	20/29	323	0	1	57.9	-15	1	0.59
2	vsSouth Carolina	W41-30	19.8	17/23	309	4	0	92.1	-11	0	0.64
4	vsNorth Texas	W45-21	1.0	22/30	408	3	1	93.0	37	1	0.51
5	vsLSU	W44-41	28.7	20/34	298	4	1	88.9	9	1	0.42
6	@Tennessee	W34-31	5.1	19/35	196	3	0	81.0	53	0	0.21
7	vsMissouri	L26-41	19.3	25/45	290	3	2	57.1	5	0	0.17
8	@Vanderbilt	L27-31	7.5	16/28	114	0	1	64.9	10	2	0.03
10	vsFlorida	W23-20	9.0	16/25	258	1	0	73.6	6	0	0.41
11	vsApp State	W45-6	—	19/26	281	2	1	90.4	24	0	0.41
12	@Auburn	L38-43	25.2	33/49	415	2	1	73.1	37	2	0.29
13	vsKentucky	W59-17	-2.5	18/23	183	4	1	92.8	31	0	0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.2%

Passing plays

89.6%

Rushing plays

8.6%

Standard downs

41.9%

Passing downs

59.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.