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Predators at Lightning
NHL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸2
FinalTV The Spot, SCRIPPS·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 2-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Conor Geekie's goal at 15:31 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 54% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.2 to 1.3; shots on goal were NSH 13, TBL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 20 of 22 (.909); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 12 of 13 (.923). Three stars: 1. Sam O'Reilly (1 A), 2. Ilya Mikheyev (1 G), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (12 saves, .923).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    S. O'Reilly1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    I. Mikheyev1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy12 saves, .923

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH140405113
TBLTBL2110704222

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    I. Mikheyev(1)
    J. Carlson (1), B. Point (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:33
  2. NSH
    B. Martin(1)
    R. Schaefer (1), J. Ahcan (1)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:39
  3. TBL
    C. Geekie(1)
    S. O'Reilly (1)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    15:31

Penalties

NSH 34 PIM·TBL 36 PIM

1st

  • 16:36TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Oasiz Wiesblatt2 min
  • 19:40NSHOasiz Wiesblatt · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 6:45NSHAndrew Gibson · Hookingdrawn by Sam O'Reilly2 min
  • 10:07TBLVictor Hedman · Holdingdrawn by Joakim Kemell2 min
  • 14:35TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Gibson2 min
  • 14:35NSHJuuse Saros · Roughingdrawn by Scott Sabourin2 min
  • 14:35NSHAndrew Gibson · Roughingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 14:35TBLScott Sabourin · Roughingdrawn by Juuse Saros2 min
  • 14:35TBLScott Sabourin · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Juuse Saros2 min
  • 17:11TBLConor Geekie · Roughingdrawn by Viggo Gustafsson2 min
  • 18:58NSHFelix Nilsson · Hookingdrawn by Max Crozier2 min

3rd

  • 4:34TBLOleg Kulebiakin · High stickingdrawn by Tanner Molendyk2 min
  • 8:15NSHDavid Edstrom · Trippingdrawn by Benjamin Rautiainen2 min
  • 12:49NSHViggo Gustafsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 12:49TBLBrandon Hagel · Roughingdrawn by Viggo Gustafsson2 min
  • 12:49TBLBrandon Hagel · Misconduct10 min
  • 12:49NSHViggo Gustafsson · Misconduct10 min
  • 16:45TBLScott Sabourin · Misconduct10 min
  • 16:45NSHOasiz Wiesblatt · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNSH goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Conor Geekie, 1st 15:31 — TBL 54% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Rautiainen · Missed · xG 0.58N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.37E. Czata · On goal · xG 0.17E. Czata · Missed · xG 0.13S. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.12C. Geekie · Goal · xG 0.11B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11M. Crozier · Missed · xG 0.11A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.10S. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.10I. Mikheyev · Goal · xG 0.10J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.09A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.09B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.07S. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.05C. Geekie · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05C. Geekie · Missed · xG 0.05A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.04M. Crozier · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03O. Kulebiakin · On goal · xG 0.03B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Crozier · On goal · xG 0.02C. Geekie · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02M. Crozier · On goal · xG 0.01S. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.01
TBL2 G · 3.2 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTBL
1.31 G
All situations
2 G3.2
0.71 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 58 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH30%70%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.27 – 2.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTBL
13
Shots on goal
22
35%
Faceoffs
65%
0/6
Power play
0/4
34
Penalty minutes
36
21
Hits
17
18
Blocked shots
7
11
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
47J. AhcanD011-240.03320—23:28
50T. MolendykD000+100.00020—20:41
49R. SchaeferL011010.11310—20:10
25J. KemellR000-100.04200—20:03
57H. SkinnerD000000.04400—19:41
48N. PerbixD000+100.02010—19:20
17T. JostC000-110.070101718:42
44B. MartinC101-120.310002717:33
89O. WiesblattC000010.10020—15:21
62F. NilssonC000010.051023815:19
60D. EdstromC000000.111226714:58
92A. GibsonD000-100.00364—14:11
40V. GustafssonD000-100.000012—13:42
19C. O'HaraR000000.10000—13:03
27J. LucchiniC000000.000005012:51
11A. FinkR000020.28010—11:44
38C. BradleyL000010.02200—11:18
97O. WiesblattC000000.0020123309:47
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)22202.9092.25+0.2558:08

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).