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Avalanche at Ducks
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Anaheim Ducks
1
FinalTV Victory+, ALT·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Parker Kelly's goal at 15:03 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 68% to 86%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.9, ANA 2.9; shots on goal were COL 26, ANA 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Lukas Dostal stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Parker Kelly (2 G), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 A), 3. Cutter Gauthier (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    P. Kelly2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 A
  3. ★★★
    ANA
    C. Gauthier1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL2711029526
ANAANA0818012128

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(18)
    V. Nichushkin (24), B. Nelson (21)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    11:33
  2. COL
    M. Necas(27)PPG
    B. Nelson (22), C. Makar (45)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-0
    14:05

2nd period

  1. ANA
    C. Gauthier(29)
    J. LaCombe (35)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    4:50
  2. COL
    P. Kelly(14)
    C. Makar (46), J. Drury (12)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    15:03

3rd period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(9)
    N. MacKinnon (59)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +7 ptsVideo
    4-1
    4:35
  2. COL
    P. Kelly(15)
    J. Drury (13), B. Kulak (9)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-1
    10:06

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·ANA 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:00COLRoss Colton · Interferencedrawn by Chris Kreider2 min
  • 5:35COLMartin Necas · Interferencedrawn by Ian Moore2 min
  • 13:10ANAJacob Trouba · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 16:20ANAJacob Trouba · Slashingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min

2nd

  • 2:30ANAChris Kreider · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Scott Wedgewood2 min
  • 6:41COLJosh Manson · Holdingdrawn by Tim Washe2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalCOL goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: Parker Kelly, 2nd 15:03 — COL 68% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Viel · On goal · xG 0.20A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.20J. LaCombe · On goal · xG 0.18B. Sennecke · On goal · xG 0.16L. Carlsson · On goal · xG 0.16P. Mintyukov · Missed · xG 0.15T. Washe · On goal · xG 0.15C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.14B. Sennecke · On goal · xG 0.14M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.14M. McTavish · Missed · xG 0.13C. Gauthier · Goal · xG 0.13C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.12I. Moore · Missed · xG 0.09C. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.07O. Zellweger · On goal · xG 0.07J. LaCombe · On goal · xG 0.07M. McTavish · Missed · xG 0.07A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.07B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.06T. Washe · On goal · xG 0.04C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.04R. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.04M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.04P. Mintyukov · Missed · xG 0.04B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.03C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.03B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.03A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.02C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.01C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01P. Mintyukov · On goal · xG 0.01M. McTavish · Missed · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.01C. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.01B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.01L. Carlsson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Zellweger · On goal · xG 0.00O. Zellweger · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA1 G · 2.9 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsANA
2.95 G
All situations
1 G2.9
2.54 G
Even strength
1 G2.1
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL50%50%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.86 – 2.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsANA
26
Shots on goal
28
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
24
11
Blocked shots
10
12
Giveaways
17
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD123+220.21010—22:26
88M. NecasC101+120.14012021:29
29N. MacKinnonC011+130.322006020:43
92G. LandeskogL101+130.240005720:13
42J. MansonD000+120.19312—19:27
84B. BurnsD000+100.00100—19:03
7D. ToewsD000+110.22010—18:20
27B. KulakD011+110.03110—18:06
70S. MalinskiD000010.16200—18:03
11B. NelsonC022+130.141005816:53
17P. KellyC202+220.092305016:27
18J. DruryC022+220.340005016:22
13V. NichushkinR011010.14020—14:28
20R. ColtonC000000.12102012:51
95V. OlofssonL000+220.25000—12:06
93Z. BardakovC000000.192003309:49
54G. BrindleyC000-110.06000009:05
14J. PolinR000000.11110—08:09
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)28271.9642.95+1.9560:00

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).