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Sabres at Hurricanes
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Carolina Hurricanes
▸2
FinalTV TNT, truTV·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 2-1. The Sabres scored first; the Hurricanes answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Seth Jarvis's goal at 2:10 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 58% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.3 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 18, CAR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Brandon Bussi stopped 17 of 18 (.944), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Bussi (17 saves, .944), 2. Seth Jarvis (1 G), 3. Andrei Svechnikov (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    B. Bussi17 saves, .944
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    A. Svechnikov1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF130807118
CARCAR1120819229

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(7)
    J. Quinn (17), J. Zucker (14)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:33
  2. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(17)
    S. Aho (34), S. Walker (10)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:04

3rd period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(22)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (25), S. Aho (35)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-2
    2:10

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·CAR 6 PIM

2nd

  • 7:15CARAndrei Svechnikov · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 11:35CARAndrei Svechnikov · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 11:35BUFRasmus Dahlin · Roughingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 16:10BUFRasmus Dahlin · Hookingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min

3rd

  • 2:03BUFOwen Power · Trippingdrawn by Logan Stankoven2 min
  • 17:31CARAndrei Svechnikov · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 17:31BUFRyan McLeod · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBUF goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Seth Jarvis, 3rd 2:10 — CAR 58% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.42J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.33J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.27J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.19S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.16T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.16N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.15J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.14S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.13A. Svechnikov · Goal · xG 0.11S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.11A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.08E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.08A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.06S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.06K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.06J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.05J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.05T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.05J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.04J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.04S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.04M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.04T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.03S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.03J. Nystrom · On goal · xG 0.02S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.01W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.01A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.01S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.00K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR2 G · 3.3 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCAR
2.51 G
All situations
2 G3.3
2.11 G
Even strength
1 G2.3
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF42%58%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 2.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCAR
18
Shots on goal
29
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/1
Power play
1/2
8
Penalty minutes
6
25
Hits
23
12
Blocked shots
6
20
Giveaways
17
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD000010.26110—27:33
26R. DahlinD101030.31314—25:03
4B. ByramD000020.16000—25:01
72T. ThompsonC000060.841204222:47
25O. PowerD000020.21112—22:07
89A. TuchR000000.002205019:55
91J. DoanR000000.00100—17:30
6Z. BensonL000010.25010—17:07
86N. OstlundC000000.04000015:23
17J. ZuckerL011000.192005014:59
71R. McLeodC000010.021025814:44
22J. QuinnR011000.05100—14:31
19P. KrebsC000010.012103311:04
94K. HeleniusC000000.09000010:47
48T. KozakC000000.004105510:28
29B. MalenstynL000000.00500—10:23
73Z. MetsaD000000.00010—08:41
78J. BrysonD000010.05110—08:00
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)29272.9312.93+0.9357:50

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).