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Sabres at Hurricanes
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸6
FinalTV FDSNSO, MSG-B·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-3. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jesperi Kotkaniemi's goal at 11:39 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.5 to 2.8; shots on goal were BUF 22, CAR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Alex Lyon stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.8 goals below expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 19 of 22 (.864). Three stars: 1. Andrei Svechnikov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Charles Alexis Legault (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    A. Svechnikov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    C. Legault1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Kotkaniemi1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1605211322
CARCAR110215310635

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(5)
    A. Svechnikov (2)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:00
  2. BUF
    O. Power(2)
    N. Ostlund (1)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:18

2nd period

  1. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(4)PPG
    K. Miller (4), N. Ehlers (5)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:34
  2. CAR
    J. Kotkaniemi(2)
    J. Nystrom (1), T. Hall (5)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    11:39

3rd period

  1. CAR
    E. Robinson(4)
    J. Kotkaniemi (3), C. Legault (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-4
    0:29
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(6)
    T. Thompson (6)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-4
    3:23
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(6)
    R. McLeod (5), A. Tuch (8)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-4
    6:49
  4. CAR
    S. Jarvis(9)EN
    J. Staal (2)
    snapxG 0.72win prob +7 ptsVideo
    3-5
    17:56
  5. CAR
    C. Legault(1)EN
    S. Aho (10)
    snapxG 0.50win prob +1 ptsVideo
    3-6
    18:32

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 11:07BUFJacob Bryson · Hookingdrawn by Taylor Hall2 min

2nd

  • 2:59BUFConor Timmins · Roughingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 11:59CARMike Reilly · Holding the stickdrawn by Josh Doan2 min
  • 18:08CARCharles Alexis Legault · Interferencedrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 18:08BUFJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Charles Alexis Legault2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBUF goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, 2nd 11:39 — CAR 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.72C. Legault · Goal · xG 0.50S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.17J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.15J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.15S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.14S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.12E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.10S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.09A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.09T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.09E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.08J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.07E. Robinson · Goal · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · Goal · xG 0.06S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.06A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.05A. Nikishin · Missed · xG 0.05J. Kotkaniemi · Goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.03J. Nystrom · On goal · xG 0.03L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.03S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.03W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.03C. Legault · On goal · xG 0.02J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Nystrom · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.01T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.01E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.01K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.01K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.01A. Nikishin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Nystrom · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kotkaniemi · Missed · xG 0.01J. Nystrom · On goal · xG 0.01M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.00S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.00J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR6 G · 3.5 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCAR
2.83 G
All situations
4 G3.5
2.63 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF61%39%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.68 – 2.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCAR
22
Shots on goal
35
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/1
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
25
16
Blocked shots
13
25
Giveaways
24
7
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD000+120.02130—23:35
25O. PowerD101-120.16110—22:08
4B. ByramD000-320.50020—21:30
21C. TimminsD000010.04012—20:22
71R. McLeodC011020.330005619:23
72T. ThompsonC112040.692102518:59
89A. TuchR112010.10310—18:37
8M. KesselringD000-200.01110—17:29
22J. QuinnR000-210.05210—17:17
19P. KrebsC000-210.061005616:23
91J. DoanR000-100.18200—15:15
12J. GreenwayL000-240.25112—15:04
48T. KozakC000020.423205614:11
63I. RosenR000-100.00000—13:54
78J. BrysonD000+100.00002—13:22
29B. MalenstynL000000.00200—10:25
44J. DunneC000000.00220008:53
86N. OstlundC011000.000002508:51
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34A. Lyon(L)33294.8792.16-1.8458:47

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).