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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

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Philadelphia Flyers
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
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Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mattias Samuelsson's goal at 15:13 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 67% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.5 to 2.3; shots on goal were PHI 22, BUF 15. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Samuel Ersson stopped 6 of 8 (.750), 0.6 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 20 of 22 (.909). Three stars: 1. Rasmus Dahlin (2 G), 2. Josh Doan (2 A), 3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (20 saves, .909).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Doan2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen20 saves, .909

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI081816222
BUFBUF262613515

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(5)PPG
    J. Doan (17), T. Thompson (21)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:30
  2. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(8)
    N. Ostlund (6), J. Doan (18)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    15:13

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(10)
    R. McLeod (19), Z. Benson (16)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    4:22
  2. PHI
    O. Tippett(15)
    N. Cates (15)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-3
    10:28
  3. BUF
    R. Dahlin(6)PPG
    J. Norris (11), T. Thompson (22)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-4
    13:51

3rd period

  1. PHI
    T. Zegras(18)PPG
    T. Konecny (25), O. Tippett (13)
    deflectedxG 0.23win prob +3 ptsVideo
    2-4
    7:37
  2. BUF
    R. McLeod(10)EN
    A. Tuch (23)
    wristxG 0.95Video
    2-5
    19:20

Penalties

PHI 12 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 1:52BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen · Hookingdrawn by Christian Dvorak2 min
  • 9:16PHICam York · Cross checkingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min

2nd

  • 2:05PHITrevor Zegras · Hookingdrawn by Josh Doan2 min
  • 12:44PHITravis Konecny · Trippingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min
  • 19:14BUFZach Benson · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikita Grebenkin2 min
  • 20:00PHIGarnet Hathaway · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Zach Benson2 min

3rd

  • 3:35PHITravis Konecny · Slashingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 4:18BUFBowen Byram · Trippingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 6:47BUFZach Metsa · Hookingdrawn by Rodrigo Abols2 min
  • 13:22PHINick Seeler · Roughingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min
  • 17:45BUFBowen Byram · Holdingdrawn by Matvei Michkov2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Mattias Samuelsson, 1st 15:13 — BUF 67% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.95T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.22R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.19J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.19J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.17M. Samuelsson · Goal · xG 0.15R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.15R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.14J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.13J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.11B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.11R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.11B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.09R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.08R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.08B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.05B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.04B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.04J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.03B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Metsa · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 3.5 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
2.32 G
All situations
4 G3.5
1.51 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.81 G
Power play
2 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI45%55%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 2.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
22
Shots on goal
15
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/5
Power play
2/6
12
Penalty minutes
10
26
Hits
27
9
Blocked shots
9
5
Giveaways
18
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9J. DrysdaleD000-210.11020—25:25
46T. ZegrasC101-370.650026723:07
22C. DvorakC000-200.361005922:43
11T. KonecnyR011-320.20204—22:25
8C. YorkD000-110.11022—21:29
36E. AndraeD000000.07320—19:57
6T. SanheimD000010.00120—18:51
74O. TippettR112040.22100—17:37
39M. MichkovR000-110.15000—16:01
27N. CatesL011+110.125006015:07
24N. SeelerD000010.01112—14:47
47N. JuulsenD000000.06300—14:38
29N. GrebenkinR000+110.1300010013:50
14S. CouturierC000000.001002713:39
91C. GrundstromR000000.01400—11:41
18R. AbolsC000-100.071003309:09
19G. HathawayR000000.0020210008:01
44N. DeslauriersL000020.02100—05:03
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33S. Ersson(L)862.7501.40-0.6037:27
80D. Vladar642.6671.17-0.8319:42

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).