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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
1
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV TNT, HBO MAX·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 4-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Easton Cowan's goal at 19:36 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.0 to 2.8; shots on goal were FLA 32, TOR 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 19 of 22 (.864); Joseph Woll stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G), 2. Matthew Knies (1 G, 1 A), 3. Joseph Woll (31 saves, .969).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Knies1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Woll31 saves, .969

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA0409119132
TORTOR182916423

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    E. Cowan(5)
    N. Robertson (12), N. Roy (12)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    19:36

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(12)
    T. Stecher (6), J. Tavares (23)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    0:42
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(21)
    M. Knies (26), M. Maccelli (10)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    4:01

3rd period

  1. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(12)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.08win prob +3 ptsVideo
    1-3
    11:38
  2. TOR
    B. McMann(13)EN
    N. Roy (13)
    backhandxG 0.89Video
    1-4
    19:52

Penalties

FLA 9 PIM·TOR 11 PIM

1st

  • 5:24FLAEvan Rodrigues · Hookingdrawn by Nick Robertson2 min
  • 11:14TOREaston Cowan · Trippingdrawn by Uvis Balinskis2 min
  • 14:21TORMax Domi · Fightingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad5 min
  • 14:21FLAAaron Ekblad · Fightingdrawn by Max Domi5 min

2nd

  • 19:59TORMorgan Rielly · Trippingdrawn by Anton Lundell2 min

3rd

  • 2:15TORPhilippe Myers · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 6:05FLADonovan Sebrango · Hookingdrawn by Bobby McMann2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Easton Cowan, 1st 19:36 — TOR 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.89J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.40S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.39E. Cowan · Goal · xG 0.21S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.17S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.09N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.08M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.07M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.06S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.05M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.04B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.03N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.03T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.02P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.02S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.02P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.00J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 4.0 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
2.81 G
All situations
3 G4.0
1.21 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
1.50 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA50%50%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.71 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
23
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/3
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
11
31
Hits
21
10
Blocked shots
18
12
Giveaways
14
8
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
42G. ForslingD000-330.15020—24:43
13S. ReinhartC000-330.23200022:44
15A. LundellC000-330.362006021:56
9S. BennettC000020.331104221:15
5A. EkbladD000000.10005—20:16
17E. RodriguesC000-240.143123020:05
23C. VerhaegheC101020.582005020:02
2J. PetryD000-100.07110—19:14
77N. MikkolaD000020.02200—18:51
27E. LuostarinenC000-220.131005016:59
26U. BalinskisD000-110.13120—16:58
11M. SamoskevichR000-130.07500—14:39
10A. GreerL000020.27200—14:04
6D. SebrangoD000000.03202—12:13
63B. MarchandL000010.03000—11:41
70J. BoqvistC000010.08210009:43
71L. KuninC000020.023206308:51
18N. GregorL000010.01200—05:40
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)22193.8642.74-0.2656:06

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).