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Sabres at Jets
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tanner Pearson's goal at 2:22 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.1 to 2.8; shots on goal were BUF 35, WPG 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.0 goals below expected; Eric Comrie stopped 34 of 35 (.971), 3.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Cole Koepke (1 G, 1 A), 2. Eric Comrie (34 saves, .971), 3. Tanner Pearson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    C. Koepke1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    E. Comrie34 saves, .971
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    T. Pearson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11501109135
WPGWPG182916423

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(15)
    G. Vilardi (12), D. Samberg (4)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:24
  2. BUF
    J. Zucker(9)PPG
    J. Norris (3), R. Dahlin (17)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-1
    14:44

2nd period

  1. WPG
    T. Pearson(4)
    C. Koepke (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    2:22
  2. WPG
    C. Koepke(1)
    M. Barron (4), D. DeMelo (11)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    18:42

3rd period

  1. WPG
    G. Vilardi(12)EN
    K. Connor (19), M. Scheifele (21)
    wristxG 0.79Video
    1-4
    19:26

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·WPG 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:40WPGMorgan Barron · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 14:25WPGJonathan Toews · Trippingdrawn by Noah Ostlund2 min
  • 16:18BUFBowen Byram · Hookingdrawn by Gabriel Vilardi2 min

2nd

  • 6:13WPGLogan Stanley · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 6:13BUFJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Logan Stanley2 min
  • 10:18BUFRasmus Dahlin · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Adam Lowry0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalBUF goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Tanner Pearson, 2nd 2:22 — WPG 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Vilardi · Goal · xG 0.79A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.20K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.19L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.15K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.14M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.13K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.12C. Koepke · Goal · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.11T. Pearson · Goal · xG 0.09M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.09M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.08V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.07L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.06J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.05J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.04D. Samberg · On goal · xG 0.04C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.01D. Samberg · On goal · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01D. Samberg · Missed · xG 0.01E. Salomonsson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pearson · Missed · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG4 G · 2.8 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsWPG
4.11 G
All situations
3 G2.8
2.40 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
1.61 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF78%22%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.81 – 2.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsWPG
35
Shots on goal
23
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
22
Hits
33
7
Blocked shots
9
13
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011-140.15120—24:42
23M. SamuelssonD000-110.05110—23:21
4B. ByramD000-220.08002—21:46
25O. PowerD000-120.04000—20:17
21C. TimminsD000-150.17120—18:37
71R. McLeodC000000.100004718:13
72T. ThompsonC000-230.471006316:55
17J. ZuckerL101-150.930001716:32
89A. TuchR000-220.74200—16:09
22J. QuinnR000-110.28200—16:01
9J. NorrisC011-300.090004015:43
19P. KrebsC000030.104007014:50
91J. DoanR000-110.33110—14:21
12J. GreenwayL000030.18402—13:42
6Z. BensonL000-230.15000—13:24
29B. MalenstynL000000.09510—13:11
86N. OstlundC000-100.090004010:32
78J. BrysonD000-200.02000—09:14
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)22193.8642.03-0.9758:30

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).