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Jets at Sabres
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Buffalo Sabres

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Winnipeg Jets
1
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, Prime·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bowen Byram's goal at 3:01 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 65% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.9 to 2.0; shots on goal were WPG 24, BUF 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Thomas Milic stopped 15 of 17 (.882), 0.6 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Josh Norris (2 G, 1 A), 2. Josh Doan (2 A), 3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (23 saves, .958).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Norris2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Doan2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen23 saves, .958

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG0816010124
BUFBUF31417110531

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Zucker(7)PPG
    J. Doan (9), J. Norris (1)
    tip-inxG 0.61win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:46
  2. BUF
    B. Byram(5)
    J. Quinn (8), C. Timmins (6)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    3:01
  3. BUF
    J. Norris(1)
    T. Thompson (10), Z. Benson (10)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-3
    14:54

2nd period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(13)
    J. Morrissey (19), M. Scheifele (19)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-3
    11:26
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(9)
    J. Doan (10)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-4
    12:49

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Norris(2)
    Z. Benson (11), R. Dahlin (16)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +2 ptsVideo
    1-5
    0:41

Penalties

WPG 26 PIM·BUF 14 PIM

1st

  • 1:31WPGDylan DeMelo · Holdingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 8:50BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Gabriel Vilardi2 min

3rd

  • 3:51WPGLogan Stanley · Elbowingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 8:52BUFJason Zucker · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:01WPGLogan Stanley · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 14:01BUFBeck Malenstyn · Misconduct10 min
  • 14:01WPGVladislav Namestnikov · Misconduct10 min
  • 14:01WPGLogan Stanley · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalWPG goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Bowen Byram, 1st 3:01 — BUF 65% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.61J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.23R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.18J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.17J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.12N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.11P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.11R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.10B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.10J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.09M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.08B. Byram · Goal · xG 0.08R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.07P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.07J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.04M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.03J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.03C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.03J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF5 G · 2.9 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsBUF
2.01 G
All situations
5 G2.9
1.31 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG34%66%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.98 – 2.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsBUF
24
Shots on goal
31
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/2
Power play
1/3
26
Penalty minutes
14
35
Hits
12
17
Blocked shots
8
13
Giveaways
8
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD011010.22020—23:49
2D. DeMeloD000010.00322—22:00
54D. SambergD000-110.01330—21:02
81K. ConnorL101-120.27010—19:12
13G. VilardiC000-120.28100018:41
55M. ScheifeleC011-100.120103317:54
5L. SchennD000-210.04210—17:28
6C. MillerD000-210.12210—17:00
19J. ToewsC000020.040007315:24
9A. IafalloL000-210.17300—15:18
64L. StanleyD000-110.012114—15:17
91C. PerfettiC000010.02320015:01
17A. LowryC000-200.002106314:34
7V. NamestnikovC000020.253110014:03
62N. NiederreiterR000-210.06110—12:23
36M. BarronC000020.073003312:22
70T. PearsonL000020.07400—12:09
14G. NyquistR000030.24300—11:08
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32T. Milic17152.8821.45-0.5540:00
1E. Comrie(L)14113.7861.48-1.5220:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).