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Sabres at Red Wings
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Detroit Red Wings
4
Final/OTTV FDSNDET, MSG-B·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-4 in overtime, Mattias Samuelsson scoring at 1:05. The Sabres came back from three goals down. The Red Wings led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mattias Samuelsson's goal at 1:05 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — BUF 3.2, DET 3.0; shots on goal were BUF 27, DET 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Colten Ellis stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.0 goals below expected; John Gibson stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Lucas Raymond (3 A), 3. Josh Doan (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    L. Raymond3 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Doan1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF151821311527
DETDET153150800428

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    P. Kane(3)
    B. Chiarot (3)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:23
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(7)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.35win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:52

2nd period

  1. DET
    A. DeBrincat(7)
    L. Raymond (12)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    3:52
  2. DET
    D. Larkin(11)
    L. Raymond (13), M. Seider (7)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:56
  3. DET
    A. DeBrincat(8)PPG
    L. Raymond (14), M. Seider (8)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-4
    8:50
  4. BUF
    J. Doan(5)
    R. Dahlin (9), B. Byram (6)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +7 ptsVideo
    2-4
    17:58

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(8)
    J. Doan (7), C. Ellis (1)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    4:25
  2. BUF
    R. McLeod(4)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.16win prob +30 ptsVideo
    4-4
    9:28

Overtime

  1. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(3)
    T. Thompson (8), R. Dahlin (10)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +51 ptsVideo
    5-4
    1:05

Penalties

BUF 10 PIM·DET 8 PIM

2nd

  • 5:26BUFNoah Ostlund · Trippingdrawn by Nate Danielson2 min
  • 5:40DETPatrick Kane · Trippingdrawn by Ryan McLeod2 min
  • 8:29BUFJosh Dunne · Holdingdrawn by Axel Sandin-Pellikka2 min
  • 15:37BUFJordan Greenway · Interferencedrawn by Axel Sandin-Pellikka2 min
  • 18:23DETSimon Edvinsson · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

3rd

  • 5:37DETSimon Edvinsson · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 8:05BUFPeyton Krebs · Trippingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 10:13DETJonatan Berggren · Interferencedrawn by Josh Doan2 min
  • 17:27BUFserved by J. Quinn · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalBUF goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Mattias Samuelsson, OT 1:05 — BUF 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Kane · Goal · xG 0.22J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.22J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.18D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.17A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.16A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.15J. Bernard-Docker · Missed · xG 0.14M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.14A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.14D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.13N. Danielson · On goal · xG 0.12P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.12D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.12A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.10N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.08A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.08A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.08P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.07M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.07L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.05J. Berggren · Missed · xG 0.05M. Kasper · Missed · xG 0.04P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.03M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.03M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.03L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.03L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.02E. Finnie · Missed · xG 0.02A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.02L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.02J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02N. Danielson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.01A. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.01L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.00
DET4 G · 3.0 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsDET
3.25 G
All situations
4 G3.0
2.54 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.50 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF52%48%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.08 – 2.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsDET
27
Shots on goal
28
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/4
Power play
1/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
19
Hits
18
16
Blocked shots
14
15
Giveaways
10
8
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD022+100.17110—27:05
23M. SamuelssonD101+210.19150—22:31
4B. ByramD011-130.17100—20:28
71R. McLeodC101+120.180003819:20
21C. TimminsD000010.00020—18:51
89A. TuchR101+140.42110—18:20
72T. ThompsonC112+260.851004318:07
25O. PowerD000+100.00010—17:35
22J. QuinnR000030.30010—16:42
91J. DoanR112+240.43200—16:10
86N. OstlundC000010.090122915:14
63I. RosenR000010.22020—14:32
19P. KrebsC000-100.092021013:22
12J. GreenwayL000010.0211210013:01
48T. KozakC000000.003103812:58
29B. MalenstynL000000.00500—11:28
8M. KesselringD000+100.02100—10:59
44J. DunneC000-100.00002008:14
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
92C. Ellis(W)28244.8572.96-1.0461:02

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).