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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Final/OTTV MSG-B, SN1·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3 in overtime, John Tavares scoring at 1:28. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 1:28 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.2, TOR 2.1; shots on goal were BUF 26, TOR 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.9 goals below expected; Cayden Primeau stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 2. Tage Thompson (2 G), 3. Jake McCabe (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson2 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. McCabe1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF112161701326
TORTOR161111511423

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(3)
    J.Kulich (2), M. Samuelsson (3)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    13:40
  2. TOR
    N. Robertson(1)
    E. Cowan (3), A. Matthews (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    18:33

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Maccelli(2)
    J. Tavares (7), M. Knies (7)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:59
  2. BUF
    B. Byram(1)
    C. Timmins (2), R. McLeod (4)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    14:23

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(4)PPG
    J. Zucker (2), R. Dahlin (7)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +25 ptsVideo
    3-2
    7:06
  2. TOR
    D. Joshua(2)
    J. McCabe (2), B. Carlo (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +37 ptsVideo
    3-3
    13:10

Overtime

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(5)
    M. Knies (8)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    1:28

Penalties

BUF 21 PIM·TOR 13 PIM

1st

  • 2:32BUFJosh Dunne · Interferencedrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 7:05TORJake McCabe · High stickingdrawn by Jiri Kulich2 min
  • 10:09TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 14:22BUFAlex Tuch · Instigatordrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 14:22TORJake McCabe · Fightingdrawn by Alex Tuch5 min
  • 14:22BUFAlex Tuch · Fightingdrawn by Jake McCabe5 min
  • 14:22BUFAlex Tuch · Instigator misconduct10 min

2nd

  • 4:21BUFMattias Samuelsson · Cross checkingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 17:12TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Interferencedrawn by Josh Doan2 min

3rd

  • 6:25TORSimon Benoit · Trippingdrawn by Josh Dunne2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, OT 1:28 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.26J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.22N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14M. Maccelli · Missed · xG 0.14N. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.11M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.10S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.09M. Maccelli · Goal · xG 0.07E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.05N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.05M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.05D. Joshua · Goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.04B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.00J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.00M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.1 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
2.23 G
All situations
4 G2.1
1.22 G
Even strength
4 G1.1
0.91 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF51%49%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.13 – 2.09

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
26
Shots on goal
23
33%
Faceoffs
67%
1/4
Power play
0/3
21
Penalty minutes
13
20
Hits
25
15
Blocked shots
18
15
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25O. PowerD000-120.07010—23:55
26R. DahlinD011-120.17000—23:42
23M. SamuelssonD011-110.05322—22:43
21C. TimminsD011000.03130—21:48
6Z. BensonL000+110.01010—19:50
72T. ThompsonC202050.6900010018:35
4B. ByramD101-120.11020—18:21
71R. McLeodC011-200.000003317:47
20J.KulichC011+110.032002715:24
22J. QuinnR000-230.27210—15:19
91J. DoanR000-200.00100—15:08
19P. KrebsC000-120.013204615:04
17J. ZuckerL011010.24000—14:54
29B. MalenstynL000020.09610—14:19
89A. TuchR000010.190017—13:34
44J. DunneC000010.0820210012:14
86N. OstlundC000020.100202008:39
73Z. MetsaD000+100.00000—07:08
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(O)23194.8262.10-1.9061:28

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).