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Maple Leafs at Sabres
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 7:20 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.5, BUF 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 34, BUF 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 25 of 30 (.833), 2.4 goals below expected; Alex Lyon stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Mattias Samuelsson (2 G), 2. Alex Tuch (1 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Lyon (31 saves, .912).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    M. Samuelsson2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Lyon31 saves, .912

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR29011114334
BUFBUF2122919530

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(1)
    R. McLeod (3), A. Tuch (4)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:38
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(3)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (5), B. Carlo (1)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:01
  3. BUF
    J.Kulich(3)
    Z. Benson (7), T. Thompson (4)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    6:12
  4. TOR
    A. Matthews(5)PPG
    J. Tavares (6), O. Ekman-Larsson (6)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +10 ptsVideo
    2-2
    12:45

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(2)
    B. Byram (3), J.Kulich (1)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-3
    7:20
  2. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(2)
    R. Dahlin (6), P. Krebs (3)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-4
    13:10

3rd period

  1. TOR
    D. Joshua(1)
    E. Cowan (2), N. Roy (2)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    1:55
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(3)SHG
    O. Power (2)
    backhandxG 0.21win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-5
    16:59

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 9:01BUFRasmus Dahlin · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 11:39BUFTage Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 13:23TORMax Domi · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 13:26TORCalle Jarnkrok · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min

3rd

  • 15:23BUFRasmus Dahlin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 19:48BUFPeyton Krebs · High sticking double minordrawn by Nicolas Roy4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTOR goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 2nd 7:20 — BUF 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.22A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.21J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.20J. Kulich · Goal · xG 0.16Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.14Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.13R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.12M. Samuelsson · Goal · xG 0.11B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.10M. Samuelsson · Goal · xG 0.10Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.07B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.06J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.06P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.05R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.03C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.03M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.02J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.02J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.01J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.01P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.00O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 2.6 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsBUF
2.53 G
All situations
5 G2.6
1.62 G
Even strength
4 G1.9
0.91 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR48%52%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 2.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsBUF
34
Shots on goal
30
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
30
Hits
8
13
Blocked shots
21
18
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
95O. Ekman-LarssonD022040.15000—25:50
34A. MatthewsC101040.252106523:48
25B. CarloD011+110.02100—21:31
22J. McCabeD000010.02260—20:32
91J. TavaresC011-230.210105219:16
23M. KniesL000-230.36420—19:03
74B. McMannC000+100.00200018:09
88W. NylanderR101+120.32100—17:39
2S. BenoitD000-110.01310—16:53
55N. RoyC011-120.213006015:11
63M. MaccelliL000-210.27000—14:40
11M. DomiC000-140.221027514:16
51P. MyersD000-330.09120—14:05
36D. MermisD000-210.02000—13:12
81D. JoshuaC101020.29400012:36
53E. CowanR011010.06000—11:05
18S. LorentzC000-200.01400010:49
19C. JarnkrokC000-210.0020210010:16
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(L)30255.8332.62-2.3857:09

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).