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Avalanche at Mammoth
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Utah Mammoth
▸4
Final/OTTV ESPN, TVAS·Delta Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 in overtime, Dylan Guenther scoring at 0:33. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Mammoth led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Guenther's goal at 0:33 of overtime, which took the Mammoth's chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Mammoth, 3.1 to 2.9; shots on goal were COL 33, UTA 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Mammoth win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 0.9 goals below expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 30 of 33 (.909). Three stars: 1. Dylan Guenther (1 G), 2. Mikhail Sergachev (1 G, 2 A), 3. Karel Vejmelka (30 saves, .909).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    D. Guenther1 G
  2. ★★
    UTA
    M. Sergachev1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    UTA
    K. Vejmelka30 saves, .909

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL1130721300333
UTAUTA0102151711433

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(3)
    P. Kelly (1), Z. Bardakov (1)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    5:29

2nd period

  1. UTA
    N. Schmaltz(4)PPG
    C. Keller (6), M. Sergachev (1)
    snapxG 0.35win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:17
  2. UTA
    L. Crouse(1)
    K. Stenlund (1), M. Carcone (1)
    slapxG 0.33win prob +20 ptsVideo
    1-2
    12:30

3rd period

  1. COL
    J. Drury(1)
    R. Colton (1)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:10
  2. UTA
    M. Sergachev(1)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.03win prob +27 ptsVideo
    2-3
    5:20
  3. COL
    M. Necas(5)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.02win prob +40 ptsVideo
    3-3
    17:44

Overtime

  1. UTA
    D. Guenther(4)
    C. Keller (7), M. Sergachev (2)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    0:33

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·UTA 2 PIM

1st

  • 7:38COLJack Drury · Hookingdrawn by John Marino2 min

2nd

  • 8:49COLGavin Brindley · Trippingdrawn by Clayton Keller2 min
  • 18:47UTADmitri Simashev · High stickingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
UTA goalCOL goalFinal: UTA 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Guenther, OT 0:33 — UTA 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.35L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.33L. Crouse · Goal · xG 0.33N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.24J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.12N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.12L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.12C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.11L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.11L. O'Brien · On goal · xG 0.10L. O'Brien · On goal · xG 0.10D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.10D. Guenther · Goal · xG 0.09C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.07L. Cooley · Missed · xG 0.07B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.06M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.06D. Simashev · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.06M. Carcone · Missed · xG 0.06N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.05C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.04C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.03C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.03M. Carcone · Missed · xG 0.02D. Simashev · On goal · xG 0.02M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.02K. Stenlund · On goal · xG 0.02M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.02L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.01D. Simashev · On goal · xG 0.01M. Carcone · Missed · xG 0.01D. Simashev · Missed · xG 0.01L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Brien · On goal · xG 0.00M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.00L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.00
UTA4 G · 3.1 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsUTA
2.93 G
All situations
4 G3.1
2.83 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL45%55%UTA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.79 – 3.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsUTA
33
Shots on goal
33
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/1
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
20
Hits
28
8
Blocked shots
19
17
Giveaways
21
7
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD101+120.04020—25:30
7D. ToewsD000+220.01020—25:14
88M. NecasC101-120.27200022:04
84B. BurnsD000030.03120—21:23
29N. MacKinnonC000-181.022004420:51
42J. MansonD000-130.32100—18:53
62A. LehkonenL000010.09100—18:46
13V. NichushkinR000010.23200—18:17
11B. NelsonC000+110.240105318:12
92G. LandeskogL000010.02300—16:38
70S. MalinskiD000-130.04000—14:56
18J. DruryC101+120.280024314:22
20R. ColtonC011+110.06200014:05
95V. OlofssonL000010.15000—13:43
28I. SolovyovD000-120.05310—12:34
17P. KellyC011+100.000005009:21
54G. BrindleyC000000.00102008:25
93Z. BardakovC011000.012002005:57
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(O)33294.8793.12-0.8860:33

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).