Skip to content
Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
4
Buffalo Sabres
▸8
FinalTV MSG-B, SN1·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Ottawa Senators 8-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan McLeod's goal at 6:46 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 32% to 51%. Expected goals were close — OTT 3.7, BUF 3.7; shots on goal were OTT 37, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Leevi Meriläinen stopped 19 of 26 (.731), 4.2 goals below expected; Alex Lyon stopped 33 of 37 (.892). Three stars: 1. Ryan McLeod (2 G), 2. Jason Zucker (2 G), 3. Josh Doan (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. McLeod2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Zucker2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Doan3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT18117212437
BUFBUF1342034827

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(1)PPG
    B. Byram (1), R. Dahlin (2)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:01
  2. OTT
    T. Stützle(1)
    F. Zetterlund (1), J. Spence (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:09

2nd period

  1. OTT
    J. Sanderson(1)PPG
    R. Greig (2), D. Cozens (2)
    pokexG 0.41win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:58
  2. BUF
    R. McLeod(1)SHG
    Z. Benson (1), O. Power (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-2
    6:46
  3. BUF
    A. Tuch(1)
    J. Bryson (1), J. Doan (1)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-3
    10:17
  4. BUF
    J. Zucker(2)PPG
    R. Dahlin (3), Z. Benson (2)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-4
    11:46
  5. BUF
    J. Zucker(3)PPG
    J. Doan (2), T. Thompson (1)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-5
    13:43

3rd period

  1. OTT
    S. Pinto(5)
    J. Spence (2), J. Sanderson (4)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-5
    0:40
  2. OTT
    L. Eller(1)
    N. Cousins (1), J. Spence (3)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-5
    2:15
  3. BUF
    R. McLeod(2)
    A. Tuch (2), J. Doan (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-6
    2:32
  4. BUF
    J. Quinn(2)
    P. Krebs (1), Z. Benson (3)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-7
    3:17
  5. BUF
    J.Kulich(1)EN
    T. Thompson (2), Z. Benson (4)
    wristxG 0.85Video
    4-8
    16:44

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·BUF 14 PIM

1st

  • 6:36OTTFabian Zetterlund · Holdingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 10:09BUFRyan Johnson · Interferencedrawn by Olle Lycksell2 min
  • 13:21BUFJacob Bryson · Delaying game2 min

2nd

  • 2:17BUFBowen Byram · Trippingdrawn by Fabian Zetterlund2 min
  • 3:58BUFserved by J. Quinn · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 5:48BUFAlex Tuch · Slashingdrawn by David Perron2 min
  • 11:03OTTShane Pinto · Roughingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 11:03BUFConor Timmins · Roughingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min
  • 11:03OTTClaude Giroux · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 11:03OTTClaude Giroux · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 11:03BUFPeyton Krebs · Roughingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 13:12OTTRidly Greig · High stickingdrawn by Jiri Kulich2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan McLeod, 2nd 6:46 — BUF 32% → 51%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Kulich · Goal · xG 0.85A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.34A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.34R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.24P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.24J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.16R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.15J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.12J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.11Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.10J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.10R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.09O. Power · Missed · xG 0.07J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.03C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF8 G · 3.7 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
3.74 G
All situations
7 G3.7
2.23 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
1.41 G
Power play
3 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT64%36%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.62 – 2.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
37
Shots on goal
27
65%
Faceoffs
35%
1/5
Power play
3/3
10
Penalty minutes
14
21
Hits
28
10
Blocked shots
20
15
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD112030.54020—22:07
72T. ChabotD000-230.12010—21:56
18T. StützleC101-250.691007321:12
10J. SpenceD033+320.06410—17:59
12S. PintoC101-130.351025017:44
89L. EllerC101+130.360004517:36
19D. BathersonR000-330.20110—17:27
57D. PerronL000-100.00000—16:50
71R. GreigC011-200.043127116:25
3N. JensenD000-210.03000—16:11
24D. CozensC011-350.532006915:59
43T. KlevenD000040.02310—15:58
28C. GirouxR000-120.321148015:41
2A. ZubD000-100.00200—14:40
20F. ZetterlundL011020.17202—14:38
22M. AmadioR000+110.2110010013:43
15O. LycksellR000+100.00020—11:59
21N. CousinsC011+100.000005011:10
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1L. Meriläinen(L)26197.7312.81-4.1958:06

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).