Maple Leafs at Panthers 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸2

Florida Panthers

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Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 2-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 6:20 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 76%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.0, FLA 1.9; shots on goal were TOR 17, FLA 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 22 of 22 (1.000), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 15 of 17 (.882). Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (1 G), 2. Joseph Woll (22 saves, 1.000), 3. Max Pacioretty (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Matthews1 G
★★
J. Woll22 saves, 1.000
★★★
M. Pacioretty1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	07	06	24	217
FLA	02	012	08	022

Scoring

2 goals

3rd period

A. Matthews(3)
M. Marner (11)
wristxG 0.03win prob +29 ptsVideo
1-0
6:20
M. Pacioretty(3)
B. McMann (2), M. Domi (4)
backhandxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
2-0
14:17

Penalties

8 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

5:23Simon Benoit · Interferencedrawn by A.J. Greer2 min
9:10Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min

2nd

10:29served by M. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
12:01Auston Matthews · High stickingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min
16:30Aaron Ekblad · Interferencedrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

3rd

8:49Brandon Carlo · Hookingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
20:00Matthew Tkachuk · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Joseph Woll2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: FLA

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 3rd 6:20 — TOR 48% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.9 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.0 xG · 31 att FLA

0 G · 1.9 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.02 G
All situations: 0 G1.9; 1.72 G
Even strength: 0 G1.3; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

52%48%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.96 – 1.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

17
Shots on goal: 22; 61%
Faceoffs: 39%; 0/2
Power play: 0/4; 8
Penalty minutes: 6; 35
Hits: 58; 31
Blocked shots: 10; 12
Giveaways: 8; 6
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
16M. MarnerR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	2	0	100	21:20
2S. BenoitD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	4	2	—	20:04
22J. McCabeD	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	3	0	—	19:43
8C. TanevD	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	0	6	0	—	19:32
25B. CarloD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	1	2	—	19:13
95O. Ekman-LarssonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	4	2	—	18:55
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.06	3	3	0	—	18:35
34A. MatthewsC	1	0	1	+1	4	0.20	1	1	2	56	18:14
29P. HolmbergR	0	0	0	0	2	0.27	2	1	0	—	16:38
91J. TavaresC	0	0	0	0	3	0.41	1	2	0	58	16:24
88W. NylanderR	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	2	0	0	—	15:43
24S. LaughtonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	5	1	0	75	15:37
74B. McMannC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	0	13:30
23M. KniesL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.38	1	0	0	—	13:01
11M. DomiC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	0	0	0	75	12:04
19C. JarnkrokC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	0	11:44
67M. PaciorettyL	1	0	1	+1	3	0.36	4	2	0	—	11:11
18S. LorentzC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6	1	0	0	10:32

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
60J. Woll(W)	22	22	0	1.000	1.87	+1.87	60:00

Series

FLA leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score