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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV ESPN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 4-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 5:50 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.0 to 2.1; shots on goal were FLA 28, TOR 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 2.4 goals below expected; Joseph Woll stopped 25 of 28 (.893). Three stars: 1. Max Pacioretty (1 G, 1 A), 2. Max Domi (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Pacioretty1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Domi1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA16111111328
TORTOR152916420

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    A. Barkov(2)PPG
    S. Jones (2)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:58
  2. TOR
    M. Pacioretty(2)PPG
    M. Rielly (2), M. Domi (2)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    18:19

2nd period

  1. FLA
    B. Marchand(1)
    A. Lundell (5), E. Luostarinen (5)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    0:15
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(6)
    M. Pacioretty (4), O. Ekman-Larsson (2)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:18
  3. TOR
    M. Domi(2)
    S. Lorentz (1), M. Rielly (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-3
    17:09

3rd period

  1. FLA
    A. Lundell(3)
    A. Ekblad (1), E. Luostarinen (6)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-3
    5:33
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(2)
    J. McCabe (4), A. Matthews (6)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-4
    5:50

Penalties

FLA 10 PIM·TOR 8 PIM

1st

  • 2:20FLADmitry Kulikov · Interferencedrawn by Bobby McMann2 min
  • 8:39FLABrad Marchand · Trippingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 10:53TORBobby McMann · Trippingdrawn by Brad Marchand2 min
  • 16:45FLADmitry Kulikov · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 8:18FLAEvan Rodrigues · Embellishment2 min
  • 8:18TORScott Laughton · Roughingdrawn by Nate Schmidt2 min
  • 8:18FLANate Schmidt · Roughingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min
  • 8:18TORScott Laughton · Roughingdrawn by Nate Schmidt2 min
  • 9:42TORPontus Holmberg · Trippingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 3rd 5:50 — TOR 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.43M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.34A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.20W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.17B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.10M. Pacioretty · Goal · xG 0.10M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.09J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.04S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.04M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.03M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.01M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.00B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.00J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.1 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
3.03 G
All situations
4 G2.1
2.62 G
Even strength
3 G1.1
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA74%26%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.95 – 1.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
28
Shots on goal
20
37%
Faceoffs
63%
1/2
Power play
1/3
10
Penalty minutes
8
39
Hits
41
8
Blocked shots
25
5
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3S. JonesD011-200.00110—27:11
13S. ReinhartC000-120.334106723:06
77N. MikkolaD000-230.16100—22:58
23C. VerhaegheC000-110.41500021:53
16A. BarkovC101-110.093205021:36
42G. ForslingD000+230.11110—20:21
5A. EkbladD011+230.11200—19:59
19M. TkachukL000-230.37310—18:30
9S. BennettC000-210.324002717:01
27E. LuostarinenC022+220.11500016:20
63B. MarchandL101+220.48112—15:28
15A. LundellC112+230.361003314:07
7D. KulikovD000-100.00204—13:47
88N. SchmidtD000-100.00002—11:26
8N. SturmC000000.000002509:35
25M. SamoskevichR000020.08400—09:27
17E. RodriguesC000-220.040025008:48
70J. BoqvistC000000.00210005:48
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(L)20164.8001.64-2.3657:05

Series

FLA leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).