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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Final/OTTV TBS, truTV·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime, Jake Sanderson scoring at 17:42. The Senators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Sanderson's goal at 17:42 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.2 to 2.1; shots on goal were TOR 34, OTT 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 17 of 21 (.810), 1.9 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 31 of 34 (.912). Three stars: 1. Jake Sanderson (1 G, 1 A), 2. Brady Tkachuk (1 A), 3. Shane Pinto (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    J. Sanderson1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    S. Pinto1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR19191808334
OTTOTT210011317421

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(1)PPG
    J. Sanderson (2), B. Tkachuk (1)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:03
  2. OTT
    S. Pinto(1)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    14:11
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(3)
    W. Nylander (4), C. Tanev (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    19:05

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(3)
    M. Marner (6), A. Matthews (5)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-2
    10:12

3rd period

  1. OTT
    D. Perron(1)
    A. Zub (1), A. Gaudette (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +29 ptsVideo
    2-3
    7:32
  2. TOR
    O. Ekman-Larsson(2)
    W. Nylander (5), J. McCabe (1)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +36 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:31

Overtime

  1. OTT
    J. Sanderson(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.01win prob +48 ptsVideo
    3-4
    17:42

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 7:59TORMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min
  • 13:26OTTDavid Perron · Roughingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 20:00OTTDylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 20:00TORSimon Benoit · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min

2nd

  • 4:47TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 6:06OTTJake Sanderson · Interferencedrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

OT

  • 4:37OTTDrake Batherson · High sticking double minordrawn by Chris Tanev4 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Sanderson, OT 17:42 — OTT 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.42D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.24A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.17D. Perron · Goal · xG 0.17S. Pinto · Goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.09T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.07F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.06D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.05D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.05S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.04D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.04D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.04D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.04F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.02J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.02J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01N. Matinpalo · Missed · xG 0.01R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.01N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.01F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · Goal · xG 0.01D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Jensen · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.01T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 2.1 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
3.23 G
All situations
4 G2.1
2.03 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
1.20 G
Power play
1 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR68%32%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.16 – 2.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
34
Shots on goal
21
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/4
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
29
Hits
44
28
Blocked shots
17
16
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000-140.08010—30:51
16M. MarnerR011020.211105028:26
22J. McCabeD011+110.05030—27:12
34A. MatthewsC011040.721205026:23
95O. Ekman-LarssonD101+220.16220—25:14
23M. KniesL101020.32200—24:47
8C. TanevD011+110.08150—24:34
88W. NylanderR022060.5601010022:43
25B. CarloD000-100.00020—22:25
2S. BenoitD000000.00322—19:16
24S. LaughtonC000010.062105818:33
91J. TavaresC101030.421125017:56
74B. McMannC000-120.06330017:46
19C. JarnkrokC000000.21300016:37
29P. HolmbergR000+100.061105015:51
11M. DomiC000-130.080026415:36
18S. LorentzC000010.0142010015:13
67M. PaciorettyL000-120.12510—14:03
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(L)21174.8102.15-1.8577:42

Series

TOR leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).