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Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Ottawa Senators
2
Final/OTTV ESPN2, SN·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 3-2 in overtime, Simon Benoit scoring at 1:19. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Simon Benoit's goal at 1:19 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.3 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 20, OTT 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 18 of 20 (.900); Linus Ullmark stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matthew Knies (1 G), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 3. Claude Giroux (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Knies1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Giroux1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR07161512320
OTTOTT081101200220

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. OTT
    C. Giroux(1)PPG
    J. Sanderson (1), D. Batherson (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:38
  2. TOR
    M. Knies(2)PPG
    W. Nylander (3), M. Marner (4)
    backhandxG 0.24win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:31

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(1)
    M. Marner (5), M. Rielly (1)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-1
    0:32
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(2)
    C. Giroux (2), T. Kleven (2)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +34 ptsVideo
    2-2
    11:22

Overtime

  1. TOR
    S. Benoit(1)
    A. Matthews (4)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +52 ptsVideo
    3-2
    1:19

Penalties

TOR 12 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:39TORBrandon Carlo · Roughingdrawn by David Perron2 min
  • 3:39OTTDavid Perron · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Carlo2 min
  • 4:56TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 18:42OTTBrady Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 20:00TORMatthew Knies · Cross checkingdrawn by Ridly Greig2 min

2nd

  • 0:45TORWilliam Nylander · Trippingdrawn by Ridly Greig2 min
  • 3:13TORSimon Benoit · Roughingdrawn by Shane Pinto2 min
  • 3:13OTTShane Pinto · Roughingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 7:42OTTDrake Batherson · High stickingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 14:40TORSteven Lorentz · Trippingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Simon Benoit, OT 1:19 — TOR 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.28D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.15T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.15A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.14D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.13D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.12D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.12M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.11T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.08C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.06D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.06D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.05J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.05M. Amadio · Missed · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.04F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.03S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.02N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.02C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01N. Matinpalo · Missed · xG 0.01R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.00M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.03 G
All situations
2 G2.3
1.52 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.61 G
Power play
1 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR44%56%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.02 – 2.32

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
20
Shots on goal
20
63%
Faceoffs
37%
1/2
Power play
1/4
12
Penalty minutes
8
37
Hits
44
17
Blocked shots
17
7
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000010.03140—21:48
44M. RiellyD011000.24040—20:11
8C. TanevD000000.00120—19:59
34A. MatthewsC112+220.493006519:55
16M. MarnerR022+200.09200—19:52
2S. BenoitD101+130.06322—19:30
25B. CarloD000010.05032—19:15
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000+100.00010—18:07
88W. NylanderR011010.1800210017:20
91J. TavaresC000030.261027117:06
23M. KniesL101+210.25302—16:24
11M. DomiC000-110.013004313:29
29P. HolmbergR000010.04200—13:22
74B. McMannC000-130.22700012:44
67M. PaciorettyL000-110.04700—12:24
24S. LaughtonC000000.012006211:56
19C. JarnkrokC000000.00010010:56
18S. LorentzC000020.0720210010:39
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)20182.9002.34+0.3461:19

Series

TOR leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).