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Predators at Stars
NHL

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
1
Dallas Stars
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, Victory+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Nashville Predators 5-1. The Predators scored first; the Stars answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Marchment's goal at 0:39 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 53% to 76%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.7, DAL 2.9; shots on goal were NSH 29, DAL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.1 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (28 saves, .966), 2. Mason Marchment (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matt Duchene (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger28 saves, .966
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Marchment1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    M. Duchene2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0171903129
DALDAL05110412527

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    S. Stamkos(24)
    F. Forsberg (40), N. Blankenburg (11)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    4:37
  2. DAL
    M. Granlund(21)
    M. Duchene (47), M. Marchment (24)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +23 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:24

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Marchment(20)
    M. Duchene (48)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +24 ptsVideo
    1-2
    0:39
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(28)
    J. Robertson (43), M. Rantanen (51)
    tip-inxG 0.18win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:47
  3. DAL
    W. Johnston(31)
    M. Bourque (14)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +4 ptsVideo
    1-4
    9:45
  4. DAL
    L. Bichsel(3)
    M. Rantanen (52), J. Robertson (44)
    snapxG 0.11Video
    1-5
    12:42

Penalties

NSH 10 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:08NSHMichael Bunting · High sticking double minordrawn by Sam Steel4 min
  • 14:18DALColin Blackwell · Hookingdrawn by Justin Barron2 min

2nd

  • 11:14NSHSteven Stamkos · Holdingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min

3rd

  • 3:10NSHMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 3:10NSHMichael Bunting · Trippingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 3:10DALColin Blackwell · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 17:49DALLian Bichsel · Trippingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalNSH goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Mason Marchment, 3rd 0:39 — DAL 53% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.23S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.22R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.20S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.20C. Blackwell · Missed · xG 0.20R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.19M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.18M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.14S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.14R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.13E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.12L. Bichsel · Goal · xG 0.11E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.08M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.07S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.07L. Bichsel · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.06M. Bourque · Missed · xG 0.06J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.05W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.04R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.03O. Bäck · Missed · xG 0.03E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.02L. Bichsel · On goal · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01L. Bichsel · On goal · xG 0.01M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00O. Bäck · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 2.9 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsDAL
2.71 G
All situations
5 G2.9
1.71 G
Even strength
5 G2.5
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH47%53%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.69 – 2.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsDAL
29
Shots on goal
27
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/2
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
34
Hits
19
17
Blocked shots
8
8
Giveaways
12
9
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76B. SkjeiD000+140.15010—22:11
20J. BarronD000-350.38420—21:32
7M. Del GaizoD000-400.01500—20:36
37N. BlankenburgD011+110.01010—19:47
77L. EvangelistaR000-230.20200—17:48
91S. StamkosC101020.561021417:18
9F. ForsbergL011040.354205016:45
90R. O'ReillyC000020.560304716:32
82J. OesterleD000-110.02000—16:20
47M. McCarronC000-210.032105415:57
8A. EnglundD000-200.00220—15:43
58M. BuntingL000-110.28038—15:37
36C. SmithR000-210.010005015:19
40F. SvechkovC000-200.001001413:47
68Z. L'HeureuxL000+110.04510—12:45
19J. VranaL000-210.0200010012:32
89O. WiesblattC000-110.02510011:18
26K. BellowsL000-110.09300—10:13
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(L)27225.8152.93-2.0760:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).