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Stars at Predators
NHL

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸4
Nashville Predators
3
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Nashville Predators 4-3. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Robertson's goal at 2:24 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.7 to 1.7; shots on goal were DAL 20, NSH 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 33 of 36 (.917), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Scott Wedgewood stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mason Marchment (2 G), 3. Tommy Novak (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Marchment2 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    T. Novak1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL044709420
NSHNSH08113215336

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(1)
    L. Stankoven (1), W. Johnston (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:05
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(1)
    R. Hintz (1), L. Stankoven (2)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    2:24
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(1)PPG
    J. Marchessault (1), R. Josi (1)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    3:30
  4. DAL
    M. Marchment(1)PPG
    M. Duchene (1), L. Stankoven (3)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-1
    8:03
  5. DAL
    M. Marchment(2)
    T. Seguin (1), T. Harley (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +8 ptsVideo
    4-1
    18:15

3rd period

  1. NSH
    T. Novak(1)
    L. Evangelista (1), F. Forsberg (1)
    backhandxG 0.25win prob +6 pts
    4-2
    4:37
  2. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(1)
    J. Marchessault (2)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +4 pts
    4-3
    18:25

Penalties

DAL 12 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 1:51DALMason Marchment · Interferencedrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 7:30NSHAlexandre Carrier · Cross checkingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 13:29DALNils Lundkvist · Slashingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 14:26NSHSteven Stamkos · Hookingdrawn by Thomas Harley2 min
  • 18:24NSHJonathan Marchessault · High stickingdrawn by Mathew Dumba2 min

2nd

  • 2:55DALSam Steel · High stickingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 6:54NSHserved by L. Evangelista · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 9:38DALMathew Dumba · Holding the stickdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 18:58DALMathew Dumba · High stickingdrawn by Philip Tomasino2 min

3rd

  • 7:29DALserved by M. Marchment · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDAL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Jason Robertson, 2nd 2:24 — DAL 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.39T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.25T. Novak · Goal · xG 0.25J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.17F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.15P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.13B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.13F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.10J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.08G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.08P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.07G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.07C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.07G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.07R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.06R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.06C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.05B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.03P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.03L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.02F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · Missed · xG 0.01J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.01J. Lauzon · Missed · xG 0.01J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.01J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.01A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.00M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.00J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.00B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 3.7 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsNSH
1.74 G
All situations
3 G3.7
1.33 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.41 G
Power play
1 G1.9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL19%81%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.75 – 3.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsNSH
20
Shots on goal
36
34%
Faceoffs
66%
1/4
Power play
1/6
12
Penalty minutes
8
11
Hits
21
13
Blocked shots
16
19
Giveaways
22
2
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000+200.02210—23:31
23E. LindellD000-120.01150—21:45
53W. JohnstonC011+140.310103021:09
55T. HarleyD011040.11020—19:23
46I. LyubushkinD000-200.16110—19:14
3M. DumbaD000+200.00124—18:28
14J. BennL000-210.030005017:34
21J. RobertsonL101+210.10300—16:45
95M. DucheneC011-110.281003816:19
24R. HintzC112+210.190003816:06
91T. SeguinC011+100.000001715:30
27M. MarchmentL202+130.38002—14:09
63E. DadonovL000-230.14100—13:07
18S. SteelC000-100.000022512:35
11L. StankovenC033+200.000103312:29
5N. LundkvistD000+100.00002—12:23
15C. BlackwellC000000.001004310:35
10O. BackC000000.000002509:04
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)36333.9173.66+0.6659:19

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).