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Maple Leafs at Ducks
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Anaheim Ducks
2
FinalTV KTTV, Victory+·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Anaheim Ducks 3-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Steven Lorentz's goal at 11:35 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 82%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.9, ANA 3.0; shots on goal were TOR 23, ANA 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Lukas Dostal stopped 20 of 23 (.870). Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G), 2. Sam Colangelo (1 G), 3. Chris Tanev.

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G
  2. ★★
    ANA
    S. Colangelo1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    C. Tanev

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1611314323
ANAANA01118112231

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Domi(8)
    C. Jarnkrok (4), S. Laughton (17)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    19:24

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(23)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    6:29
  2. ANA
    L. Carlsson(20)
    O. Zellweger (12), C. Gauthier (23)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    7:50

3rd period

  1. ANA
    S. Colangelo(7)PPG
    T. Zegras (17), J. LaCombe (29)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:16
  2. TOR
    S. Lorentz(7)
    D. Kampf (8), S. Benoit (8)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +34 ptsVideo
    3-2
    11:35

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·ANA 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:36TORBrandon Carlo · Trippingdrawn by Jackson LaCombe2 min
  • 13:53TORWilliam Nylander · Holdingdrawn by Olen Zellweger2 min

2nd

  • 1:44ANATrevor Zegras · Trippingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 19:22ANARadko Gudas · Holdingdrawn by Chris Tanev2 min

3rd

  • 1:25TORMorgan Rielly · Trippingdrawn by Isac Lundeström2 min
  • 3:42TORMatthew Knies · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Nesterenko2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalTOR goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: Steven Lorentz, 3rd 11:35 — TOR 48% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.17S. Colangelo · Goal · xG 0.15S. Colangelo · Missed · xG 0.15T. Terry · Missed · xG 0.14R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.12L. Carlsson · On goal · xG 0.11S. Colangelo · Missed · xG 0.10L. Carlsson · On goal · xG 0.09M. McTavish · Missed · xG 0.09J. Harkins · Missed · xG 0.09T. Zegras · On goal · xG 0.09O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.09L. Carlsson · Missed · xG 0.09T. Terry · Missed · xG 0.08T. Zegras · Missed · xG 0.08N. Nesterenko · On goal · xG 0.08F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.08J. LaCombe · Missed · xG 0.07N. Nesterenko · On goal · xG 0.06S. Colangelo · On goal · xG 0.06O. Zellweger · On goal · xG 0.06T. Zegras · On goal · xG 0.06P. Mintyukov · Missed · xG 0.05A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.05L. Carlsson · Missed · xG 0.05J. LaCombe · Missed · xG 0.05M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.04T. Zegras · Missed · xG 0.04F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.04L. Carlsson · On goal · xG 0.04J. LaCombe · Missed · xG 0.04O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.03J. LaCombe · Missed · xG 0.03L. Carlsson · Goal · xG 0.03S. Colangelo · Missed · xG 0.03M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.03J. LaCombe · On goal · xG 0.03M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.03D. Helleson · On goal · xG 0.03T. Zegras · On goal · xG 0.03C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.02A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.01D. Helleson · On goal · xG 0.01M. McTavish · On goal · xG 0.01C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.01T. Zegras · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.01P. Mintyukov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.01C. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA2 G · 3.0 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsANA
2.93 G
All situations
2 G3.0
2.03 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
0.70 G
Power play
1 G1.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR47%53%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.71 – 2.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsANA
23
Shots on goal
31
60%
Faceoffs
40%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
20
Hits
5
22
Blocked shots
9
16
Giveaways
16
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000010.02340—22:55
34A. MatthewsC000+110.271006720:13
16M. MarnerR101+130.51010—20:02
8C. TanevD000-100.02140—19:56
23M. KniesL000+140.43312—19:51
25B. CarloD000-110.03252—18:47
88W. NylanderR000020.32002—18:17
91J. TavaresC000020.252107418:04
2S. BenoitD011+310.00100—17:26
44M. RiellyD000020.18012—17:09
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000+310.04010—16:53
74B. McMannC000010.38110014:43
19C. JarnkrokC011010.10000013:55
24S. LaughtonC011000.01200013:33
11M. DomiC101010.110104212:58
64D. KampfC011+100.001005712:29
18S. LorentzC101+120.17100008:58
29P. HolmbergR000+100.00220—07:07
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)31292.9352.96+0.9659:53

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).