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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
Detroit Red Wings
3
FinalTV ABC, ESPN+·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 6-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex DeBrincat's goal at 14:29 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 15% to 32%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 4.1 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 18, DET 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 34 of 37 (.919), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Cam Talbot stopped 11 of 14 (.786), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Hagel (2 G, 2 A), 2. Alex DeBrincat (1 G, 2 A), 3. Erik Cernak (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Hagel2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    A. DeBrincat1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    E. Cernak1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL470526618
DETDET21011908337

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(25)
    N. Kucherov (55), E. Cernak (12)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:28
  2. TBL
    E. Cernak(2)
    N. Kucherov (56), R. McDonagh (15)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    2:56
  3. DET
    V. Tarasenko(7)
    M. Seider (29), A. DeBrincat (21)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    9:47
  4. TBL
    B. Point(30)
    G. Goncalves (5), B. Hagel (33)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-1
    11:49
  5. TBL
    N. Paul(15)
    B. Hagel (34), E. Cernak (13)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-1
    15:13
  6. DET
    P. Kane(12)PPG
    A. DeBrincat (22), L. Raymond (38)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +9 ptsVideo
    4-2
    16:54

2nd period

  1. DET
    A. DeBrincat(24)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.25win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    14:29

3rd period

  1. TBL
    D. Duke(1)
    M. Chaffee (5), N. Perbix (10)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +17 ptsVideo
    5-3
    4:10
  2. TBL
    B. Hagel(26)EN
    N. Kucherov (57), R. McDonagh (16)
    wristxG 0.56win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-3
    17:57

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·DET 10 PIM

1st

  • 16:46TBLNikita Kucherov · Trippingdrawn by Ben Chiarot2 min

2nd

  • 6:30TBLNikita Kucherov · Hookingdrawn by Patrick Kane2 min

3rd

  • 20:00DETSimon Edvinsson · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Alex DeBrincat, 2nd 14:29 — DET 15% → 32%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.25J. Berggren · Missed · xG 0.20V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.20V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.20P. Kane · Goal · xG 0.19M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.19J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.17V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.16M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.15L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.15L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.14V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.13D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.11B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.11M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.11L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.10D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.10P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.10L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.10D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.10A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.09V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.09A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.08D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.08P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.07E. Soderblom · Missed · xG 0.07D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.06D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.06L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.06M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.05M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.04B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.04E. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · Missed · xG 0.01A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.01E. Soderblom · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 4.1 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
2.55 G
All situations
3 G4.1
2.05 G
Even strength
2 G3.1
0.00 G
Power play
1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL18%82%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.96 – 4.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
18
Shots on goal
37
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/0
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
28
Hits
32
19
Blocked shots
10
16
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000+100.00110—23:37
27R. McDonaghD022+410.00010—22:54
86N. KucherovR033+210.32014—22:15
81E. CernakD123+210.03140—22:01
59J. GuentzelC000+110.27100020:18
48N. PerbixD011+210.08420—19:47
38B. HagelL224+430.71120—19:21
71A. CirelliC000+110.120106418:10
43D. RaddyshD000020.05130—17:48
21B. PointC101+340.521006017:12
20N. PaulL101+110.180003117:11
78E. LillebergD000-100.00230—14:08
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.00410012:56
93G. GoncalvesC011+100.00100012:37
23M. EyssimontC000010.08300012:10
11L. GlendeningC000-100.006008510:02
41M. ChaffeeR011-100.00000—07:47
53D. DukeL101+110.17200—07:38
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)37343.9194.13+1.1360:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).