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Maple Leafs at Flames
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
Calgary Flames
3
FinalTV SNW, TSN4·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Calgary Flames 6-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bobby McMann's goal at 12:28 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 6.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were TOR 30, CGY 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.5 goals below expected; Dustin Wolf stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (3 G), 2. Auston Matthews (3 A), 3. Matt Coronato (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander3 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews3 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Coronato1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0741429630
CGYCGY1101719326

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Coronato(14)PPG
    J. Huberdeau (18), N. Kadri (19)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    14:16

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(31)PPG
    M. Knies (15), A. Matthews (21)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    2:36
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(21)PPG
    A. Matthews (22), M. Rielly (19)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:17
  3. CGY
    Y. Sharangovich(11)PPG
    M. Weegar (22), N. Kadri (20)
    tip-inxG 0.20win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-2
    5:58
  4. TOR
    B. McMann(16)
    S. Lorentz (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-2
    12:28
  5. TOR
    W. Nylander(32)
    M. Pacioretty (8)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    18:18

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(20)
    A. Matthews (23)
    pokexG 0.71win prob +6 ptsVideo
    5-2
    5:44
  2. CGY
    J. Farabee(9)
    J. Huberdeau (19), M. Weegar (23)
    tip-inxG 0.38win prob +6 ptsVideo
    5-3
    6:02
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(33)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.91Video
    6-3
    19:16

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·CGY 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:41TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 12:32TORConor Timmins · Hookingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 12:40TORJake McCabe · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 1:02CGYMacKenzie Weegar · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 3:08CGYBrayden Pachal · Interferencedrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 4:20TORSimon Benoit · High stickingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 5:06TORSteven Lorentz · High stickingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 9:29CGYRyan Lomberg · Roughingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min

3rd

  • 1:39CGYBrayden Pachal · Interferencedrawn by Conor Timmins2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalTOR goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Bobby McMann, 2nd 12:28 — TOR 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.38Y. Sharangovich · Goal · xG 0.20J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.18M. Coronato · Goal · xG 0.16J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.15M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.11N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.11J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.09M. Frost · Missed · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.07J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.06J. Bean · Missed · xG 0.05N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.05M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.05J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.04R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Klapka · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.03M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.02A. Klapka · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bean · Missed · xG 0.01J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY3 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCGY
6.05 G
All situations
3 G2.5
3.13 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
1.12 G
Power play
2 G1.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR75%25%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.98 – 2.46

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCGY
30
Shots on goal
26
53%
Faceoffs
47%
2/4
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
20
Hits
22
23
Blocked shots
14
28
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. KniesL112+131.21200—23:00
44M. RiellyD011+330.10030—22:54
8C. TanevD000+110.03050—22:38
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000+100.00220—22:12
34A. MatthewsC033+131.120405821:47
22J. McCabeD000000.00132—21:14
91J. TavaresC101040.562126518:03
88W. NylanderR303+161.39000—17:56
64D. KampfC000+210.071005715:02
11M. DomiC000+100.000005014:49
2S. BenoitD000+100.00232—14:20
74B. McMannC101+230.32100013:38
67M. PaciorettyL011020.03400—12:05
25C. TimminsD000000.00012—11:47
18S. LorentzC011+100.00102011:18
29P. HolmbergR000010.600103010:15
89N. RobertsonL000020.31100—09:50
75R. ReavesR000010.23300—07:50
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)26233.8852.49-0.5160:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).