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Blue Jackets at Sabres
NHL

Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Columbus Blue Jackets
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
FinalTV FDSNOH, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 3-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Tuch's goal at 12:17 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.5 to 1.7; shots on goal were CBJ 29, BUF 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Elvis Merzlikins stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.0 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Alex Tuch (2 G, 1 A), 2. Bowen Byram (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jason Zucker (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Tuch2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    B. Byram1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Zucker2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CBJCBJ0121918229
BUFBUF1621401321

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    B. Byram(6)
    J. Zucker (21), A. Tuch (22)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:07

2nd period

  1. CBJ
    K. Johnson(16)
    J. van Riemsdyk (14), I. Provorov (19)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    1:47
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(17)
    D. Gilbert (3), B. Byram (21)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-2
    12:17
  3. BUF
    A. Tuch(18)
    R. Dahlin (34), J. Zucker (22)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    18:56

3rd period

  1. CBJ
    I. Provorov(5)
    D. Severson (15), L. Del Bel Belluz (6)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-3
    12:38

Penalties

CBJ 7 PIM·BUF 7 PIM

1st

  • 0:03BUFDennis Gilbert · Fightingdrawn by Mathieu Olivier5 min
  • 0:03CBJMathieu Olivier · Fightingdrawn by Dennis Gilbert5 min

2nd

  • 8:07BUFDylan Cozens · Trippingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese2 min
  • 12:55CBJDamon Severson · Slashingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCBJ goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Tuch, 2nd 12:17 — BUF 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.55B. Byram · Goal · xG 0.16Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.13Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.11J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.11Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.11A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.09P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.08Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.06R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.06B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.06J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.05A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.05C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.05B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.04J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.03J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.02J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.5 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CBJvsBUF
1.72 G
All situations
3 G2.5
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CBJ44%56%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.71 – 1.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CBJvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
21
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/1
Power play
0/1
7
Penalty minutes
7
18
Hits
24
18
Blocked shots
18
17
Giveaways
22
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Columbus Blue Jackets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9I. ProvorovD112030.21130—28:27
19A. FantilliC000-130.273105821:25
10D. VoronkovL000-120.12010—21:13
5D. MateychukD000-110.09140—19:50
4C. SillingerC000-120.02000019:43
78D. SeversonD011020.03012—18:29
91K. JohnsonC101+240.31000017:48
3J. JohnsonD000010.02110—17:39
2J. ChristiansenD000-100.00320—17:34
21J. van RiemsdykL011+200.01000—15:41
65L. Del Bel BelluzC011+200.000105014:38
22J. HarrisD000010.09010—14:24
24M. OlivierR000-120.07305—13:12
27Z. Aston-ReeseL000050.36110—13:02
17J. DanforthR000-100.003003612:59
7S. KuralyC000-130.101204412:01
82M. PyyhtiaL000-200.00000—11:39
62K. LabancR000-100.01100—10:50
Columbus Blue Jackets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
90E. Merzlikins(L)21183.8571.99-1.0157:26

Season series

CBJ leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).