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Sabres at Blues
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
St. Louis Blues
2
FinalTV FDSNMW, MSG-B·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the St. Louis Blues 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Zucker's goal at 10:30 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 4.2 to 1.3; shots on goal were BUF 16, STL 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 91% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 12 of 16 (.750), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jason Zucker (1 G, 1 A), 2. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Colton Parayko (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Zucker1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    C. Parayko2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF260624416
STLSTL115011111237

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    P. Krebs(4)
    B. Byram (16), R. Dahlin (20)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:52
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(18)PPG
    J. Zucker (15), J. Quinn (7)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-0
    13:06
  3. STL
    B. Schenn(6)
    C. Parayko (14), J. Neighbours (8)
    wristxG 0.83win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-1
    15:47

3rd period

  1. STL
    N. Walker(4)
    C. Parayko (15), A. Toropchenko (5)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +28 ptsVideo
    2-2
    5:56
  2. BUF
    J. Zucker(10)PPG
    J. Quinn (8), T. Thompson (11)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +28 ptsVideo
    3-2
    10:30
  3. BUF
    J.Kulich(7)
    M. Samuelsson (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +9 ptsVideo
    4-2
    16:19

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·STL 6 PIM

1st

  • 10:08BUFRasmus Dahlin · Holdingdrawn by Brayden Schenn2 min
  • 12:21STLJake Neighbours · Hookingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 14:16STLAlexandre Texier · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 15:42BUFAlex Tuch · High stickingdrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min

2nd

  • 5:52BUFJJ Peterka · Cross checkingdrawn by Alexandre Texier2 min
  • 11:06BUFSam Lafferty · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Suter2 min

3rd

  • 9:16STLZachary Bolduc · Cross checkingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalBUF goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Jason Zucker, 3rd 10:30 — BUF 53% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Schenn · Goal · xG 0.83N. Walker · Goal · xG 0.19P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.19Z. Bolduc · On goal · xG 0.18N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.18J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.18J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.17D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.14D. Holloway · Missed · xG 0.12D. Holloway · Missed · xG 0.12J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.11B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.10J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.10D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.09J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Bolduc · On goal · xG 0.08C. Fowler · Missed · xG 0.08B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.08C. Fowler · Missed · xG 0.07O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.07R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.07B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.07C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.07O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.07R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.07C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.05R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.05R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.05C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.05J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.05A. Texier · On goal · xG 0.05P. Broberg · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Bolduc · On goal · xG 0.04D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.03C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.03O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.03J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.03B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.02R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.02T. Tucker · Missed · xG 0.02J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.02T. Tucker · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.02D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.02C. Parayko · Missed · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.01R. Thomas · Missed · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.00
STL2 G · 4.2 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsSTL
1.34 G
All situations
2 G4.2
0.92 G
Even strength
2 G3.0
0.42 G
Power play
0 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF9%91%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.31 – 4.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsSTL
16
Shots on goal
37
40%
Faceoffs
60%
2/3
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
14
23
Blocked shots
4
11
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4B. ByramD011010.15140—24:45
26R. DahlinD011-120.11232—23:38
23M. SamuelssonD011000.00510—23:19
89A. TuchR000020.04042—19:29
72T. ThompsonC112020.172003219:18
25O. PowerD000-110.00000—18:43
17J. ZuckerL112010.1921010018:13
77J. PeterkaR000010.02002—15:17
71R. McLeodC000-100.001205015:03
22J. QuinnR022000.00000—14:48
75C. CliftonD000+110.02220—14:14
24D. CozensC000-100.001102713:55
9Z. BensonL000+210.14100—12:56
20J.KulichC101+120.130005012:28
78J. BrysonD000+100.00010—12:14
19P. KrebsC101+220.23120011:44
29B. MalenstynL000-100.1111010011:38
81S. LaffertyC000-100.00112010:34
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)37352.9464.24+2.2459:44

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).