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Blues at Sabres
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
Final/OTTV ESPN+, HULU·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the St. Louis Blues 4-3 in overtime, Rasmus Dahlin scoring at 1:33. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Blues led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rasmus Dahlin's goal at 1:33 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — STL 2.1, BUF 2.0; shots on goal were STL 27, BUF 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 2.0 goals below expected; Devon Levi stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan McLeod (1 G, 1 A), 2. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G), 3. Alex Tuch (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. McLeod1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
STLSTL182110800327
BUFBUF2160101611433

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    B. Saad(3)
    B. Schenn (5), C. Parayko (6)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:11
  2. BUF
    Z. Benson(3)
    P. Krebs (4), O. Power (10)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    12:47
  3. BUF
    R. McLeod(5)
    J. Bryson (2), A. Tuch (11)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:49

2nd period

  1. STL
    P. Buchnevich(5)
    J. Kyrou (10), J. Neighbours (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    5:25
  2. STL
    B. Saad(4)
    B. Schenn (6), D. Holloway (4)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +22 ptsVideo
    3-2
    17:15

3rd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(5)
    R. McLeod (6), B. Byram (8)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +35 ptsVideo
    3-3
    12:57

Overtime

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(4)PPG
    J. Peterka (8), J. Quinn (4)
    slapxG 0.17win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    1:33

Penalties

STL 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 10:43STLScott Perunovich · Slashingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min

2nd

  • 2:30STLJake Neighbours · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 9:58BUFJason Zucker · Interferencedrawn by Kasperi Kapanen2 min

3rd

  • 20:00STLOskar Sundqvist · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Devon Levi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalSTL goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Rasmus Dahlin, OT 1:33 — BUF 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.20R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.17S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.10J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.10A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.09P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.08D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Benson · Goal · xG 0.05J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.04J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.04P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.03J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.02B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.02J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.02B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.00J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.00A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.00O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 2.0 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsBUF
2.13 G
All situations
4 G2.0
1.83 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL53%47%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsBUF
27
Shots on goal
33
64%
Faceoffs
36%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
28
Hits
26
19
Blocked shots
10
12
Giveaways
7
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22R. SuterD000-100.00110—33:06
55C. ParaykoD011-120.05140—30:37
72J. FaulkD000+120.06020—23:02
10B. SchennC022+240.284106718:20
89P. BuchnevichL101040.341006718:19
20B. SaadL202+240.57000—17:31
63J. NeighboursL011-120.19222—17:24
81D. HollowayL011+200.08200—17:06
12R. FaksaC000020.062207316:04
13A. ToropchenkoR000020.15000—14:50
25J. KyrouR011010.1010010014:29
26N. WalkerL000-110.02700—14:14
70O. SundqvistC000-110.175125013:52
48S. PerunovichD000+100.00032—13:44
51M. KesselD000-120.02110—13:29
71M. JosephR000-100.00000—08:57
42K. KapanenR000-100.01100—07:56
77P. JosephD000000.00020—07:39
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(O)33294.8791.98-2.0261:33

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).