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New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes

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Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New Jersey Devils 5-2. The Devils scored first; the Hurricanes answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jackson Blake's goal at 10:43 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 57% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.6 to 2.1; shots on goal were NJD 23, CAR 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 1.2 goals below expected; Dustin Tokarski stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Dmitry Orlov (1 G), 2. Jack Roslovic (2 G, 1 A), 3. Sebastian Aho (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    D. Orlov1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Roslovic2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NJDNJD0101716223
CARCAR016112413541

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. NJD
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.17win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:56
  2. CAR
    slapxG 0.05win prob +23 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:30

3rd period

  1. NJD
    snapxG 0.14win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-1
    1:05
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(12)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:56
  3. CAR
    J. Blake(8)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +27 ptsVideo
    2-3
    10:43
  4. CAR
    snapxG 0.16win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-4
    12:06
  5. CAR
    S. Aho (26), S. Jarvis (15)
    snapxG 0.94win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-5
    16:38

Penalties

NJD 21 PIM·CAR 8 PIM

1st

  • 17:51NJDTimo Meier · Trippingdrawn by William Carrier2 min

2nd

  • 7:48NJDJack Hughes · Hookingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 11:59CAREric Robinson · Illegal check to headdrawn by Curtis Lazar2 min
  • 15:00CARJaccob Slavin · Interferencedrawn by Jonas Siegenthaler2 min

3rd

  • 6:28CARJesperi Kotkaniemi · Roughingdrawn by Timo Meier2 min
  • 6:28NJDTimo Meier · Kneeingdrawn by Martin Necas5 min
  • 6:28NJDTimo Meier · Game misconduct10 min
  • 12:24NJDErik Haula · Roughingdrawn by Dmitry Orlov2 min
  • 12:24CARDmitry Orlov · Roughingdrawn by Erik Haula2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNJD goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Jackson Blake, 3rd 10:43 — CAR 57% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Roslovic · Goal · xG 0.94J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.48D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.37A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.25J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.21J. Roslovic · Goal · xG 0.16S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.11J. Blake · Goal · xG 0.10S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.10J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.09A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.09J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.08J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.08J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.08S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.07J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.06M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.06A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.06S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.05J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.05D. Orlov · Goal · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.05W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.04W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.04W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.03J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.03T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.03J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.03E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.03T. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.02J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.02D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.02D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.00J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.00D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.00S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR5 G · 4.6 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NJDvsCAR
2.12 G
All situations
4 G4.6
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.40 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NJD35%65%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 2.80

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NJDvsCAR
23
Shots on goal
41
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/2
Power play
1/4
21
Penalty minutes
8
41
Hits
41
13
Blocked shots
11
14
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
New Jersey Devils skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
86J. HughesC000-340.250222425:38
63J. BrattL011-200.00110—22:46
22B. PesceD000-110.00220—20:08
7D. HamiltonD011-110.02200—19:44
43L. HughesD000000.00200—19:17
8J. KovacevicD000-100.00300—19:01
71J. SiegenthalerD000020.03220—18:51
5B. DillonD000010.14410—18:48
13N. HischierC000-160.672005017:56
18O. PalatL101-340.40320—16:02
91D. MercerC000+100.032005014:16
28T. MeierR000010.081117—14:13
11S. NoesenR000-200.06200—13:40
14N. BastianR000020.02400—11:25
47P. CotterL101+110.24210—10:32
90T. TatarL000000.00500—09:31
42C. LazarC000000.072104009:10
56E. HaulaL000+100.042023808:48
New Jersey Devils goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Allen(L)40364.9002.82-1.1859:14

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).