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Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames

FinalTV CHSN, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Chicago Blackhawks 6-4. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor Zary's goal at 10:37 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.7 to 3.4; shots on goal were CHI 28, CGY 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blackhawks win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.6 goals below expected; Dustin Wolf stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor Zary (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jonathan Huberdeau (1 G, 1 A), 3. Connor Bedard (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    C. Zary1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    J. Huberdeau1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CHI
    C. Bedard1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CHICHI08110310428
CGYCGY21531015630

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    12:19
  2. CGY
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:26

2nd period

  1. CHI
    snapxG 0.14win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:09
  2. CGY
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    10:37
  3. CGY
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-4
    12:40
  4. CGY
    J. Bean (3), M. Weegar (14)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +3 ptsVideo
    1-5
    17:51

3rd period

  1. CHI
    C. Bedard (20), T. Hall (9)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-5
    0:57
  2. CHI
    snapxG 0.24win prob +4 ptsVideo
    3-5
    11:30
  3. CHI
    wristxG 0.30win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-5
    18:52
  4. CGY
    wristxG 0.82win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-6
    19:37

Penalties

CHI 36 PIM·CGY 32 PIM

1st

  • 11:13CGYMikael Backlund · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Donato2 min
  • 14:13CHIConnor Murphy · Ps holding on breakawaydrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau0 min
  • 18:48CHITJ Brodie · Slashingdrawn by Matt Coronato2 min

2nd

  • 2:15CHIFrank Nazar · High stickingdrawn by Jake Bean2 min
  • 12:03CHIRyan Donato · Roughingdrawn by Martin Pospisil2 min
  • 12:03CGYMartin Pospisil · Roughingdrawn by Frank Nazar2 min
  • 12:03CHIRyan Donato · Roughingdrawn by Martin Pospisil2 min
  • 12:03CGYBrayden Pachal · Misconduct10 min
  • 12:03CHIRyan Donato · Misconduct10 min

3rd

  • 8:02CHIConnor Bedard · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
  • 11:21CGYMikael Backlund · Hookingdrawn by Taylor Hall2 min
  • 11:21CGYKevin Bahl · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 14:17CHINick Foligno · Slashingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 18:30CGYMartin Pospisil · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 18:30CHITyler Bertuzzi · Roughingdrawn by Martin Pospisil2 min
  • 18:30CHITyler Bertuzzi · Slashingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 18:30CGYMartin Pospisil · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 18:30CHITyler Bertuzzi · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:30CGYMartin Pospisil · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalCHI goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Connor Zary, 2nd 10:37 — CGY 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Backlund · Goal · xG 0.82N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.47J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.29C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.28J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.17K. Rooney · On goal · xG 0.15M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.13M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.10M. Coronato · Goal · xG 0.09M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.09M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.08C. Zary · Goal · xG 0.08J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.07C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.06M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.06B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.05B. Coleman · Goal · xG 0.05R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.05M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.05M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.04R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.04C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.04M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.04M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.03M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.03C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.03K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.02K. Rooney · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.00N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY6 G · 3.7 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CHIvsCGY
3.44 G
All situations
5 G3.7
1.93 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
1.41 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CHI65%35%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.18 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CHIvsCGY
28
Shots on goal
30
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/3
Power play
1/5
36
Penalty minutes
32
12
Hits
27
14
Blocked shots
19
16
Giveaways
16
4
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Chicago Blackhawks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4S. JonesD000000.03010—26:42
98C. BedardC123030.220023623:58
72A. VlasicD000-140.11100—20:37
86T. TeravainenC022-220.13000019:23
42N. AllanD000+100.00210—18:59
5C. MurphyD000-230.28260—18:26
17N. FolignoL011-120.571025018:22
59T. BertuzziL213030.812014—17:39
95I. MikheyevR101-150.54000—16:14
16J. DickinsonC000-220.221207015:48
71T. HallL022+100.0000010015:17
14K. KorchinskiD000-100.00000—14:33
78T. BrodieD000000.04002—14:28
73L. ReichelL000000.000104012:44
91F. NazarC000-100.041223312:40
8R. DonatoC000-120.240014011:46
77P. MaroonL000000.0020010008:58
22J. AndersonR000020.14010—07:20
Chicago Blackhawks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(L)29245.8282.37-2.6357:29

Season series

CGY leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).