Wild at Sabres 1-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸1

Buffalo Sabres

FinalTV FDSNNO, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Buffalo Sabres 1-0. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kirill Kaprizov's goal at 6:55 of the first period, which took the Wild's chances from 46% to 59%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.1 to 2.0; shots on goal were MIN 30, BUF 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 39 of 39 (1.000), 3.1 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Gustavsson (39 saves, 1.000), 2. Kirill Kaprizov (1 G), 3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (29 saves, .967).

Three stars

★
F. Gustavsson39 saves, 1.000
★★
K. Kaprizov1 G
★★★
U. Luukkonen29 saves, .967

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	14	011	015	130
BUF	016	09	014	039

Scoring

1 goal

1st period

K. Kaprizov(14)
J. Eriksson Ek (5), M. Boldy (12)
wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-0
6:55

Penalties

4 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

7:32Jon Merrill · Hookingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
16:06Yakov Trenin · High stickingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov, 1st 6:55 — MIN 46% → 59%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 3.1 xG · 54 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.0 xG · 39 att BUF

0 G · 3.1 xG · 54 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.01 G
All situations: 0 G3.1; 2.01 G
Even strength: 0 G1.8; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G1.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

31%69%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.96 – 3.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 39; 47%
Faceoffs: 53%; 0/0
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 0; 22
Hits: 15; 32
Blocked shots: 14; 11
Giveaways: 19; 4
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
5J. MiddletonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	7	0	—	24:49
97K. KaprizovL	1	0	1	+1	3	0.34	0	1	0	—	22:15
7B. FaberD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.10	0	2	0	—	22:15
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	1	2	0	—	22:10
12M. BoldyL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.06	0	0	0	—	20:17
47D. ChisholmD	0	0	0	0	4	0.05	0	4	0	—	20:09
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	1	1	+1	4	0.09	1	2	0	50	19:34
23M. RossiC	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	2	4	0	20	16:36
4J. MerrillD	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	2	2	—	16:05
90M. JohanssonL	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	2	1	0	—	15:57
38R. HartmanR	0	0	0	0	2	0.20	2	0	0	55	15:38
24Z. BogosianD	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	3	0	—	14:37
89F. GaudreauC	0	0	0	0	1	0.24	1	0	0	40	14:30
13Y. TreninC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	2	0	13:45
17M. FolignoL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	8	1	0	—	12:05
39B. JonesC	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	1	0	50	09:19
19D. ShoreC	0	0	0	0	2	0.43	1	0	0	0	09:05
72T. BoydC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	0	0	06:54

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)	39	39	0	1.000	3.12	+3.12	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 2-0

Nov 271@0this game
Mar 221@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres

1st period

1st

Box score