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Avalanche at Lightning
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸8
FinalTV FDSNSUN, ALT2·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Colorado Avalanche 8-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 6-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 10:03 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were COL 25, TBL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 11 of 16 (.688), 3.1 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Hagel (5 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 2 A), 3. Michael Eyssimont (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Hagel5 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    M. Eyssimont1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL1704114225
TBLTBL512111210833

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Perbix(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:41
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(8)PPG
    B. Hagel (13), N. Kucherov (19)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-2
    7:46
  3. COL
    I. Ivan(4)
    V. Nichushkin (3), J. Manson (5)
    pokexG 0.46win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    8:56
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(12)
    B. Hagel (14)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-3
    10:03
  5. TBL
    L. Glendening(1)SHG
    B. Hagel (15)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-4
    13:15
  6. TBL
    A. Cirelli(9)
    E. Cernak (6), B. Hagel (16)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-5
    19:46

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(12)PPG
    B. Hagel (17), N. Kucherov (20)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-6
    9:38

3rd period

  1. COL
    I. Ivan(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04Video
    2-6
    1:08
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(9)
    N. Perbix (4)
    wristxG 0.37Video
    2-7
    3:09
  3. TBL
    M. Eyssimont(1)
    Z. Girgensons (1)
    wristxG 0.05Video
    2-8
    4:44

Penalties

COL 4 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:28COLT.J. Tynan · Holdingdrawn by Michael Eyssimont2 min
  • 11:22TBLJ.J. Moser · Interferencedrawn by Ivan Ivan2 min

2nd

  • 3:16TBLNick Perbix · Holdingdrawn by Joel Kiviranta2 min
  • 7:50COLJosh Manson · Slashingdrawn by Darren Raddysh2 min
  • 18:23TBLNick Perbix · Interferencedrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCOL goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, 1st 10:03 — TBL 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.42J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.37L. Glendening · Goal · xG 0.34A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.26B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.24M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.15B. Point · Missed · xG 0.15N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.15B. Point · Missed · xG 0.13A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.12B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.11B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.10B. Point · Goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.09N. Perbix · Goal · xG 0.09B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.09L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.07D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.07L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.06G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.05D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.05D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.05B. Point · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.05M. Eyssimont · Goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.03M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.01G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.01M. Eyssimont · Missed · xG 0.01L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.01M. Chaffee · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.00N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL8 G · 4.0 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsTBL
2.62 G
All situations
8 G4.0
2.12 G
Even strength
5 G3.2
0.50 G
Power play
2 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL28%72%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 3.85

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsTBL
25
Shots on goal
33
37%
Faceoffs
63%
0/3
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
22
Hits
11
13
Blocked shots
17
26
Giveaways
24
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-120.37410—24:33
29N. MacKinnonC000-300.000004721:51
96M. RantanenR000-320.132103321:00
49S. GirardD000+100.03120—20:56
7D. ToewsD000-210.06020—20:43
62A. LehkonenL000-320.32110—20:32
37C. MittelstadtC000-100.070001020:23
42J. MansonD011+210.01312—19:42
13V. NichushkinR011020.12000—16:29
82I. IvanC202+150.740002515:29
44C. de HaanD000-300.01230—14:20
70S. MalinskiD000-410.02310—14:20
25L. O'ConnorR000-120.11200—13:00
94J. KivirantaL000-130.32200—12:20
51N. KovalenkoR000-120.15000—11:19
28M. WoodL000020.09100—11:04
17P. KellyC000-100.001104410:51
9T. TynanC000000.040024309:02
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Annunen(L)16115.6881.94-3.0630:03
40A. Georgiev17143.8242.02-0.9829:57

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).