Skip to content
Lightning at Avalanche
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Colorado Avalanche
2
FinalTV FDSNSUN, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 3:36 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 58% to 73%. Expected goals were close — TBL 2.8, COL 3.0; shots on goal were TBL 21, COL 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jake Guentzel (2 G), 3. Cale Makar (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel2 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL3101912521
COLCOL18014113235

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(9)
    B. Point (4), V. Hedman (7)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:01
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(3)
    N. Kucherov (7), R. McDonagh (3)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    3:36
  3. TBL
    C. Geekie(2)
    A. Cirelli (10), B. Hagel (5)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-0
    5:32
  4. COL
    I. Ivan(2)PPG
    C. Makar (15), N. MacKinnon (12)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-1
    14:56

2nd period

  1. TBL
    J. Guentzel(4)
    B. Point (5), N. Kucherov (8)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-1
    6:28

3rd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(4)
    M. Rantanen (11), N. MacKinnon (13)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-2
    10:57
  2. TBL
    A. Cirelli(2)EN
    B. Hagel (6)
    wristxG 0.85Video
    5-2
    18:40

Penalties

TBL 17 PIM·COL 26 PIM

1st

  • 12:19COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by J.J. Moser2 min
  • 14:10TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

2nd

  • 3:33TBLEmil Lilleberg · Roughingdrawn by Matt Stienburg2 min
  • 3:33COLMatt Stienburg · Roughingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 3:33TBLEmil Lilleberg · Roughingdrawn by Matt Stienburg2 min
  • 10:58TBLCam Atkinson · Interferencedrawn by Nikolai Kovalenko2 min
  • 13:44TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Nikolai Kovalenko2 min
  • 17:18TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Matt Stienburg2 min
  • 17:18COLMatt Stienburg · Chargingdrawn by Erik Cernak5 min
  • 17:18COLMatt Stienburg · Game misconduct10 min

3rd

  • 9:22COLChris Wagner · Fightingdrawn by Michael Eyssimont5 min
  • 9:22TBLMichael Eyssimont · Fightingdrawn by Chris Wagner5 min
  • 11:50COLserved by T. Tynan · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalTBL goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, 1st 3:36 — TBL 58% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.21C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.18P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.17M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.16I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.12J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.12I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.11C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.11I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.11C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.09J. Kiviranta · On goal · xG 0.09S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08I. Ivan · Goal · xG 0.07D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.07C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.06I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.06M. Stienburg · On goal · xG 0.05S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.04C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.02I. Ivan · Missed · xG 0.02C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.02C. Wagner · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · Missed · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01C. de Haan · Missed · xG 0.01T. Tynan · On goal · xG 0.00C. de Haan · Missed · xG 0.00N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.00D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.00
COL2 G · 3.0 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCOL
2.84 G
All situations
2 G3.0
1.64 G
Even strength
1 G1.9
0.20 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL31%69%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.89 – 2.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCOL
21
Shots on goal
35
60%
Faceoffs
40%
0/3
Power play
1/4
17
Penalty minutes
26
12
Hits
24
17
Blocked shots
11
18
Giveaways
9
2
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011+220.17230—25:22
90J. MoserD000+320.04130—24:52
38B. HagelL022+130.120005021:25
27R. McDonaghD011+210.01020—19:28
71A. CirelliC112+120.930025619:15
43D. RaddyshD000+100.00130—18:45
59J. GuentzelC202+330.670205018:34
21B. PointC022+300.100008318:10
20N. PaulL000+110.041003617:34
86N. KucherovR123+220.20010—16:36
41M. ChaffeeR000000.00000—15:26
78E. LillebergD000-100.00104—13:05
81E. CernakD000+120.01012—12:06
23M. EyssimontC000010.13215011:24
14C. GeekieC101+120.31100010:54
13C. AtkinsonR000000.00002—10:53
11L. GlendeningC000000.042106709:28
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.0010010007:57
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)35332.9432.98+0.9860:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).