Stars at Wild 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

▸2

Minnesota Wild

FinalTV FDSNNO, Victory+·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Minnesota Wild 2-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Marchment's goal at 11:24 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 82% to 96%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.4 to 1.9; shots on goal were DAL 40, MIN 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Filip Gustavsson stopped 38 of 40 (.950). Three stars: 1. Mason Marchment (2 G), 2. Filip Gustavsson (38 saves, .950), 3. Kirill Kaprizov (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Marchment2 G
★★
F. Gustavsson38 saves, .950
★★★
K. Kaprizov1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	115	011	114	240
MIN	07	04	112	123

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

M. Marchment(5)
I. Lyubushkin (4), T. Seguin (7)
wristxG 0.09win prob +11 ptsVideo
1-0
18:43

3rd period

M. Marchment(6)
S. Steel (5), I. Lyubushkin (5)
wristxG 0.27win prob +14 ptsVideo
2-0
11:24
K. Kaprizov(11)
J. Spurgeon (5), M. Boldy (8)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +11 ptsVideo
2-1
14:10

Penalties

14 PIM·

12 PIM

1st

1:12Frederick Gaudreau · Trippingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
12:10Brendan Smith · Fightingdrawn by Jake Middleton5 min
12:10Jake Middleton · Fightingdrawn by Brendan Smith5 min
15:31Zach Bogosian · Fightingdrawn by Mathew Dumba5 min
15:31Mathew Dumba · Fightingdrawn by Zach Bogosian5 min

2nd

2:36Brendan Smith · High stickingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min
7:56Jamie Benn · Trippingdrawn by Marco Rossi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MIN

Biggest swing: Mason Marchment, 3rd 11:24 — DAL 82% → 96%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.9 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.4 xG · 51 att MIN

1 G · 1.9 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.42 G
All situations: 1 G1.9; 2.22 G
Even strength: 1 G1.4; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

58%42%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 1.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

40
Shots on goal: 23; 57%
Faceoffs: 43%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 14
Penalty minutes: 12; 14
Hits: 29; 17
Blocked shots: 14; 16
Giveaways: 19; 8
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	1	1	0	—	26:20
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	0	2	0	—	25:35
55T. HarleyD	0	0	0	+2	4	0.04	0	0	0	—	20:11
46I. LyubushkinD	0	2	2	+2	2	0.02	0	4	0	—	17:54
21J. RobertsonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	1	0	—	17:47
95M. DucheneC	0	0	0	0	5	0.43	1	0	0	69	17:28
27M. MarchmentL	2	0	2	+1	3	0.41	3	1	0	—	16:55
91T. SeguinC	0	1	1	+1	5	0.14	0	1	0	63	16:48
24R. HintzC	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	0	1	0	55	16:36
53W. JohnstonC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	0	56	16:13
63E. DadonovL	0	0	0	0	1	0.22	1	1	0	—	15:25
11L. StankovenC	0	0	0	0	3	0.13	2	2	0	0	15:10
3M. DumbaD	0	0	0	0	2	0.21	1	2	5	—	14:19
2B. SmithD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	7	—	14:16
14J. BennL	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	1	0	2	60	13:47
18S. SteelC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	0	0	33	12:40
10O. BäckC	0	0	0	0	3	0.33	2	0	0	0	10:40
22M. BourqueC	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	0	0	0	07:56

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(W)	23	22	1	.957	1.94	+0.94	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score