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Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks

FinalTV ALT, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the San Jose Sharks 4-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ross Colton's goal at 16:37 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 61% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.3 to 2.0; shots on goal were COL 22, SJS 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Vitek Vanecek stopped 18 of 21 (.857). Three stars: 1. Ross Colton (2 G), 2. Cale Makar (1 G, 2 A), 3. William Eklund (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    R. Colton2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    SJS
    W. Eklund1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL2120624422
SJSSJS1601307126

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    R. Colton(5)PPG
    wristxG 0.12win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:23
  2. COL
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    16:37
  3. SJS
    W. Eklund(1)PPG
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    18:25

3rd period

  1. COL
    backhandxG 0.69win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-1
    9:57
  2. COL
    snapxG 0.48Video
    4-1
    18:23

Penalties

COL 17 PIM·SJS 15 PIM

1st

  • 6:00SJSserved by Will Smith · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 7:38SJSMikael Granlund · Hookingdrawn by Nikolai Kovalenko2 min
  • 18:07COLJosh Manson · Roughingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min
  • 18:07COLJosh Manson · Roughingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min
  • 18:07SJSLuke Kunin · Roughingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min

2nd

  • 2:09SJSJan Rutta · Trippingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 3:29SJSMikael Granlund · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 7:13COLLogan O'Connor · Trippingdrawn by Fabian Zetterlund2 min
  • 7:13SJSHenry Thrun · Fightingdrawn by Logan O'Connor5 min
  • 7:13COLLogan O'Connor · Fightingdrawn by Henry Thrun5 min
  • 11:30COLMiles Wood · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min
  • 12:20COLCalvin de Haan · Holdingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 15:17COLJosh Manson · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalCOL goalFinal: SJS 0%

Biggest swing: Ross Colton, 1st 16:37 — COL 61% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Eklund · On goal · xG 0.28L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.19A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.11F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.10T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.10W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.10J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.09A. Wennberg · Missed · xG 0.08F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.08M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.07T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.06J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.06M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.06W. Eklund · Goal · xG 0.05M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.05C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.05J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.04W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.03J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.03J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.03D. Gushchin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Ferraro · Missed · xG 0.03C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.02M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.02W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.02W. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02H. Thrun · On goal · xG 0.02J. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Wennberg · On goal · xG 0.02J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01W. Eklund · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · Missed · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.01J. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.00J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.00C. Grundstrom · On goal · xG 0.00B. Goodrow · Missed · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS1 G · 2.0 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsSJS
3.33 G
All situations
1 G2.0
1.82 G
Even strength
0 G0.8
1.01 G
Power play
1 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL65%35%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.72 – 1.94

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsSJS
22
Shots on goal
26
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/4
Power play
1/5
17
Penalty minutes
15
19
Hits
26
18
Blocked shots
13
19
Giveaways
16
0
Takeaways
0

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD123+220.64110—25:41
49S. GirardD011+210.02020—22:32
44C. de HaanD000020.02122—22:01
96M. RantanenR011+210.13100—20:22
29N. MacKinnonC022+230.341004720:00
20R. ColtonC202+140.892102018:59
42J. MansonD011+110.00056—17:22
37C. MittelstadtC000010.070106816:48
70S. MalinskiD000020.11010—16:38
25L. O'ConnorR000000.00007—16:26
51N. KovalenkoR000000.00010—15:22
17P. KellyC000000.003102913:48
3J. LudvigD011+110.04310—12:13
28M. WoodL000010.00122—12:12
94J. KivirantaL101+210.833006711:23
71C. RitchieC000000.00100010:49
82I. IvanC000+110.1500010010:47
36M. StienburgC000+110.05200008:19
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Annunen(W)26251.9621.97+0.9760:00

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).