Stars at Oilers 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

Edmonton Oilers

▸2

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Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Dallas Stars 2-1. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mason Marchment's goal at 9:18 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 4% to 17%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.6 to 1.2; shots on goal were DAL 34, EDM 10. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 87% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 8 of 10 (.800), 0.8 goals below expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 2.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Stuart Skinner (33 saves, .971), 2. Connor McDavid (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mason Marchment (1 G).

Three stars

★
S. Skinner33 saves, .971
★★
C. McDavid1 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Marchment1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	012	09	113	134
EDM	23	05	02	210

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

C. McDavid(5)PPG
L. Draisaitl (18), E. Bouchard (20)
backhandxG 0.14win prob +9 ptsVideo
0-1
4:17
Z. Hyman(14)PPG
C. McDavid (26), E. Bouchard (21)
snapxG 0.14win prob +12 ptsVideo
0-2
15:42

3rd period

M. Marchment(3)
T. Seguin (8), C. Tanev (2)
wristxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-2
9:18

Penalties

4 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

3:35Chris Tanev · Trippingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
7:14served by Z. Hyman · Too many men on the ice2 min
14:22Ryan Suter · Slashingdrawn by Cody Ceci2 min
17:21Brett Kulak · High stickingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min

3rd

4:32Leon Draisaitl · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

100%

Biggest swing: Mason Marchment, 3rd 9:18 — DAL 4% → 17%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.2 xG · 16 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 3.6 xG · 52 att EDM

2 G · 1.2 xG · 16 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.61 G
All situations: 2 G1.2; 2.81 G
Even strength: 0 G0.8; 0.80 G
Power play: 2 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

87%13%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.56 – 1.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

34
Shots on goal: 10; 57%
Faceoffs: 43%; 0/3
Power play: 2/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 6; 31
Hits: 15; 7
Blocked shots: 19; 17
Giveaways: 17; 9
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	1	0	0	—	30:28
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	24:16
55T. HarleyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	23:46
53W. JohnstonC	0	0	0	0	2	0.21	2	1	0	38	20:59
3C. TanevD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	3	1	2	—	20:56
21J. RobertsonL	0	0	0	0	9	0.79	1	0	0	—	20:38
24R. HintzC	0	0	0	0	1	0.22	0	0	0	71	17:53
91T. SeguinC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.62	4	0	0	57	17:45
11L. StankovenC	0	0	0	0	3	0.48	3	1	0	0	17:05
16J. PavelskiC	0	0	0	0	4	0.40	2	0	0	57	16:50
95M. DucheneC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.14	0	1	0	40	16:48
27M. MarchmentL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.27	5	0	0	100	16:34
14J. BennL	0	0	0	0	0	0.12	4	0	0	57	15:59
63E. DadonovL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	—	10:56
18S. SteelC	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	1	1	0	75	09:12
22M. BourqueC	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	1	0	0	0	07:56
20R. SuterD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	2	—	06:16
28A. PetrovicD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	06:00

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(L)	10	8	2	.800	1.23	-0.77	57:41

Series

EDM leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

1st period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score