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Stars at Oilers
NHL

Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸5
Edmonton Oilers
3
FinalTV TNT, truTV·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-3. The Stars came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Robertson's goal at 11:54 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 83%. Expected goals were close — DAL 3.4, EDM 3.2; shots on goal were DAL 22, EDM 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Stuart Skinner stopped 17 of 21 (.810), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jason Robertson (3 G), 2. Connor McDavid (1 G, 1 A), 3. Roope Hintz (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Robertson3 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    R. Hintz2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL0331623522
EDMEDM21017013330

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    Z. Hyman(13)
    C. McDavid (21), E. Bouchard (17)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:02
  2. EDM
    C. McDavid(4)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    7:37

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(4)
    R. Hintz (5), T. Seguin (6)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    5:35
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(5)
    R. Hintz (6)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    8:05
  3. DAL
    W. Johnston(8)
    L. Stankoven (4), J. Benn (8)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-2
    9:08
  4. EDM
    A. Henrique(2)
    C. Brown (2)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +23 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:07

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(6)
    T. Seguin (7), E. Lindell (2)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +35 ptsVideo
    4-3
    11:54
  2. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(6)EN
    J. Benn (9)
    wristxG 0.50win prob +7 ptsVideo
    5-3
    18:08

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·EDM 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:45DALAlexander Petrovic · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

  • 13:45DALRyan Suter · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 19:44EDMZach Hyman · Cross checkingdrawn by Mason Marchment2 min
  • 19:44DALMason Marchment · Embellishment2 min

3rd

  • 15:23EDMDarnell Nurse · Trippingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalDAL goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Jason Robertson, 3rd 11:54 — DAL 48% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.20Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.17Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.17R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.16D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.15Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.14L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.13W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.12S. Carrick · Missed · xG 0.12C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.12A. Henrique · Goal · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.11Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.10C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.10C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.09E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.07L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.07E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.07C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.07L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.05C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.05D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.05L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.05C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04S. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.03D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.03C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.03E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.02E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.01M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.01V. Desharnais · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.01E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.01V. Desharnais · Missed · xG 0.01S. Carrick · Missed · xG 0.01W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.01S. Carrick · Missed · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM3 G · 3.2 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsEDM
3.44 G
All situations
3 G3.2
2.94 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.00 G
Power play
0 G1.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL44%56%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.74 – 3.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsEDM
22
Shots on goal
30
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/1
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
19
Hits
42
22
Blocked shots
15
14
Giveaways
15
17
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23E. LindellD011+100.00330—26:47
4M. HeiskanenD101+210.50150—26:28
55T. HarleyD000+220.06000—19:48
3C. TanevD000000.01150—19:40
53W. JohnstonC101+130.541303318:14
91T. SeguinC022+220.120004617:58
24R. HintzC022+220.481106017:48
21J. RobertsonL303+240.28000—16:54
20R. SuterD000-100.02302—15:19
95M. DucheneC000+140.471005015:18
27M. MarchmentL000010.38402—15:08
14J. BennL022+110.001007014:34
16J. PavelskiC000010.410006014:34
18S. SteelC000-100.001003313:01
11L. StankovenC011000.00030011:49
28A. PetrovicD000000.00112—11:37
63E. DadonovL000-110.11010—10:18
15C. SmithC000-100.00100008:45
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)30283.9333.22+0.2260:00

Series

EDM leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).