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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Dallas Stars
3
Final/OTTV ESPN, SN·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 4-3 in overtime, Miles Wood scoring at 11:03. The Avalanche came back from three goals down. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Miles Wood's goal at 11:03 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were COL 26, DAL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 0.8 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Miles Wood (1 G), 2. Cale Makar (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jamie Benn (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Wood1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Benn1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL052111614426
DALDAL39030406322

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    R. Suter(1)
    M. Duchene (2)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:26
  2. DAL
    W. Johnston(5)
    J. Pavelski (1), J. Benn (3)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    10:55
  3. DAL
    J. Benn(2)PPG
    J. Robertson (3), M. Heiskanen (5)
    deflectedxG 0.16win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-3
    16:56

2nd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(8)PPG
    C. Makar (8), N. MacKinnon (8)
    snapxG 0.56win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:31
  2. COL
    C. Makar(3)PPG
    V. Nichushkin (1), M. Rantanen (8)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    9:08

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)
    M. Rantanen (9), C. Makar (9)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +23 ptsVideo
    3-3
    0:39

Overtime

  1. COL
    M. Wood(3)
    A. Cogliano (4), S. Girard (2)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +52 ptsVideo
    4-3
    11:03

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:28COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min
  • 15:56COLYakov Trenin · High stickingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min
  • 18:51COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min

2nd

  • 5:18DALEvgenii Dadonov · Slashingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 7:37DALCraig Smith · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 9:26COLMiles Wood · High stickingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min

3rd

  • 14:35COLJosh Manson · Hookingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 14:35DALRoope Hintz · Embellishment2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Miles Wood, OT 11:03 — COL 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.30J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.17T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.17J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.16J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.13R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.12R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.09M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.08L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.08J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.07T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.07W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.05L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.03J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.02L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.02T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.02L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · Goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.00E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.00R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 2.2 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
2.54 G
All situations
3 G2.2
1.82 G
Even strength
2 G0.9
0.72 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL56%44%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.43 – 2.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
26
Shots on goal
22
40%
Faceoffs
60%
2/2
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
46
Hits
20
24
Blocked shots
23
4
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD123030.29010—28:26
7D. ToewsD000-130.05110—27:22
96M. RantanenR022020.061241427:18
13V. NichushkinR112040.86520—27:10
29N. MacKinnonC112040.440305326:54
49S. GirardD011000.09510—26:50
42J. MansonD000+110.03332—23:29
62A. LehkonenL000-120.14510—22:02
26S. WalkerD000-110.05500—20:06
37C. MittelstadtC000-110.162106017:55
3J. JohnsonD000+100.02210—14:42
9Z. PariseL000-120.05110—14:20
73Y. TreninC000010.012123613:57
28M. WoodL101+120.18222—13:41
20R. ColtonC000+100.044202512:41
11A. CoglianoC011+100.00010011:19
12B. DuhaimeL000000.04610—09:18
14C. WagnerR000000.002002508:28
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)22193.8642.17-0.8370:52

Series

DAL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).