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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
4
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
FinalTV TNT, truTV·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-4. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Duclair's goal at 6:37 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 70% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.5 to 3.3; shots on goal were TOR 38, TBL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Martin Jones stopped 26 of 32 (.813), 2.1 goals below expected; Matt Tomkins stopped 34 of 38 (.895), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Matt Tomkins (34 saves, .895), 3. Brandon Hagel (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    M. Tomkins34 saves, .895
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR11609313438
TBLTBL21031418632

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Paul(24)
    A. Duclair (18), M. Dumba (8)
    tip-inxG 0.25win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:58
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(44)
    B. Hagel (49), S. Stamkos (40)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    6:14
  3. TOR
    R. Reaves(4)
    D. Kampf (10), C. Dewar (7)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    13:18

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Duclair(24)
    N. Paul (22), S. Stamkos (41)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    6:37
  2. TBL
    B. Point(46)PPG
    N. Kucherov (100), D. Raddysh (27)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +7 ptsVideo
    1-4
    17:05
  3. TBL
    B. Hagel(26)
    C. de Haan (7)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +2 ptsVideo
    1-5
    17:57

3rd period

  1. TBL
    T. Jeannot(7)
    M. Eyssimont (14), M. Chaffee (3)
    wristxG 0.01Video
    1-6
    11:27
  2. TOR
    T. Brodie(1)
    C. Dewar (8), D. Kampf (11)
    slapxG 0.04Video
    2-6
    14:02
  3. TOR
    P. Holmberg(7)
    N. Robertson (13)
    wristxG 0.09Video
    3-6
    16:20
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(29)
    W. Nylander (58), C. Timmins (9)
    slapxG 0.16Video
    4-6
    19:25

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:15TBLBrandon Hagel · Trippingdrawn by Connor Dewar2 min
  • 18:54TBLBrayden Point · Holdingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min

2nd

  • 8:00TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Nick Perbix2 min
  • 13:59TORAuston Matthews · Hookingdrawn by Calvin de Haan2 min
  • 16:28TORConor Timmins · Elbowingdrawn by Mitchell Chaffee2 min
  • 16:28TORConor Timmins · Roughingdrawn by Mathew Dumba2 min
  • 16:28TBLMathew Dumba · Roughingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 20:00TORSimon Benoit · Hookingdrawn by Michael Eyssimont2 min

3rd

  • 5:11TBLBrandon Hagel · Trippingdrawn by Noah Gregor2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Duclair, 2nd 6:37 — TBL 70% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.38N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.25M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.25N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.21S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.19C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.18N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.17N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.16B. Point · On goal · xG 0.15M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.15N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.15B. Point · On goal · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.13B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.13B. Point · Goal · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.12N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.11A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.08T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.07A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.06A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.05D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.05A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.05T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.05M. Chaffee · On goal · xG 0.04N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.04E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03M. Eyssimont · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jeannot · Goal · xG 0.01A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL6 G · 4.5 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
3.34 G
All situations
6 G4.5
2.14 G
Even strength
5 G2.7
1.10 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR41%59%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.19 – 3.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
38
Shots on goal
32
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
33
Hits
39
16
Blocked shots
17
4
Giveaways
3
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
34A. MatthewsC000-1120.691222221:03
37T. LiljegrenD000-300.24310—21:02
78T. BrodieD101010.11030—20:16
46I. LyubushkinD000010.02410—20:02
16M. MarnerR000-100.00002—19:45
55M. GiordanoD000030.05120—18:41
88W. NylanderR011-250.54000—17:29
91J. TavaresC101+120.725004717:13
2S. BenoitD000-210.00232—16:52
25C. TimminsD011+210.09114—16:32
64D. KampfC022+100.001005315:37
24C. DewarC022+120.01120014:54
29P. HolmbergR101020.281005614:50
59T. BertuzziL000010.10000—13:59
18N. GregorL000020.21400—13:21
89N. RobertsonL011020.05000—12:52
23M. KniesL000020.11210—11:28
75R. ReavesR101+110.04700—10:10
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31M. Jones(L)32266.8133.89-2.1157:17

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).