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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
5
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
Final/OTTV NHLN, BSSUN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-5 in overtime, Calle Jarnkrok scoring at 0:46. The Maple Leafs came back from three goals down. The Lightning led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Calle Jarnkrok's goal at 0:46 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — TBL 2.5, TOR 2.7; shots on goal were TBL 31, TOR 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 28 of 34 (.824), 3.3 goals below expected; Joseph Woll stopped 18 of 19 (.947), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Calle Jarnkrok (2 G), 2. Auston Matthews (2 G, 1 A), 3. Nikita Kucherov (2 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    C. Jarnkrok2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL4140611100531
TORTOR1821221212634

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(3)
    M. Marner (10), A. Matthews (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:42
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(3)
    N. Kucherov (10), B. Point (10)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:17
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(8)
    B. Hagel (5), M. Sergachev (6)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    6:11
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(9)PPG
    V. Hedman (10), S. Stamkos (8)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-1
    11:27
  5. TBL
    B. Point(6)PPG
    N. Kucherov (11), V. Hedman (11)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-1
    15:13

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(12)
    T. Brodie (2), M. Marner (11)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-2
    2:22
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(13)
    M. Knies (3), M. Marner (12)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    5:42

3rd period

  1. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(2)
    N. Robertson (1), M. Domi (5)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +25 ptsVideo
    4-4
    1:55
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(5)
    M. Knies (4), M. Rielly (7)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +24 ptsVideo
    4-5
    2:03
  3. TBL
    B. Hagel(7)
    C. de Haan (2), E. Cernak (2)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +42 ptsVideo
    5-5
    17:34

Overtime

  1. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(3)
    M. Rielly (8), W. Nylander (10)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +49 ptsVideo
    5-6
    0:46

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:03TORserved by M. Domi · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 11:59TBLAlex Barré-Boulet · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 13:48TORMark Giordano · Trippingdrawn by Luke Glendening2 min

2nd

  • 12:01TBLConor Sheary · Trippingdrawn by Noah Gregor2 min

3rd

  • 2:33TORMatthew Knies · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 14:14TBLNikita Kucherov · Interferencedrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Calle Jarnkrok, OT 0:46 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.21W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.20A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.19M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.18C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.16C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.15R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.15C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.13A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.12N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.10M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.06M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04W. Lagesson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.03M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.00A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR6 G · 2.7 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
2.55 G
All situations
6 G2.7
1.93 G
Even strength
6 G2.1
0.52 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL47%53%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.47 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
31
Shots on goal
34
54%
Faceoffs
46%
2/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
38
Hits
34
12
Blocked shots
14
4
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD011-110.06210—25:06
77V. HedmanD123-120.04120—24:02
86N. KucherovR224+150.47202—22:38
21B. PointC112-120.192204122:13
38B. HagelL112+120.34000—22:06
81E. CernakD011-120.04320—21:49
43D. RaddyshD000-110.02300—20:57
20N. PaulL000+140.317205318:24
91S. StamkosC011020.430004017:21
64T. MotteC000030.16310016:36
71A. CirelliC000-220.291008815:17
44C. de HaanD011-110.01300—14:36
73C. ShearyL000-110.01002—13:22
48N. PerbixD000000.00300—10:59
11L. GlendeningC000-100.002206310:03
84T. JeannotL000-310.0130010008:57
12A. Barré-BouletC000-210.12002008:22
51A. WatsonL000-110.00300—03:30
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(O)34286.8242.67-3.3360:46

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).