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Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸7
Colorado Avalanche
4
FinalTV ESPN, SN·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 7-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Stars led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Seguin's goal at 12:45 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 67% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 6.0 to 3.7; shots on goal were DAL 37, COL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 34 of 38 (.895); Alexandar Georgiev stopped 30 of 36 (.833), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Thomas Harley (3 A), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brandon Duhaime (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    T. Harley3 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Duchene1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    B. Duhaime1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL21331628737
COLCOL112213113438

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    S. Walker(10)
    B. Duhaime (8), R. Colton (22)
    snapxG 0.00win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:59
  2. DAL
    M. Duchene(25)
    C. Tanev (16)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:11
  3. DAL
    J. Benn(21)
    E. Lindell (20), W. Johnston (32)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    19:17

2nd period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(15)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (84), C. Makar (65)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:38
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(30)PPG
    J. Pavelski (39), T. Harley (27)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-2
    11:25
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(24)PPG
    M. Duchene (39), T. Harley (28)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    12:45
  4. DAL
    M. Marchment(21)PPG
    T. Harley (29), W. Johnston (33)
    backhandxG 0.66win prob +8 ptsVideo
    5-2
    17:10
  5. COL
    B. Duhaime(5)
    N. MacKinnon (85), C. Mittelstadt (38)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +8 ptsVideo
    5-3
    19:15

3rd period

  1. COL
    J. Drouin(19)
    D. Toews (35)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    5-4
    10:15
  2. DAL
    W. Johnston(31)
    L. Stankoven (8), J. Benn (37)
    pokexG 0.34win prob +10 ptsVideo
    6-4
    15:12
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(25)EN
    J. Benn (38)
    wristxG 0.53Video
    7-4
    19:51

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 19:49DALWyatt Johnston · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Drouin2 min

2nd

  • 3:44DALRyan Suter · Slashingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 10:15COLSean Walker · High sticking double minordrawn by Jamie Benn4 min
  • 15:34COLCale Makar · Slashingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Tyler Seguin, 2nd 12:45 — DAL 67% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.43V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.34A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.23C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.17A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.15B. Duhaime · Goal · xG 0.14C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.14J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.13V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.13V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.12J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.10R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.09J. Drouin · Goal · xG 0.09Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.09V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.06D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.05J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.03J. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.03Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Duhaime · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.02S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.01C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.00A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.00S. Walker · Goal · xG 0.00N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 3.7 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
6.06 G
All situations
4 G3.7
3.23 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
1.33 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 108 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL61%39%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.29 – 3.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCOL
37
Shots on goal
38
58%
Faceoffs
42%
3/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
14
Hits
37
27
Blocked shots
17
5
Giveaways
8
8
Takeaways
18

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000010.08140—26:27
55T. HarleyD033+200.00120—24:27
3C. TanevD011+110.04320—23:12
21J. RobertsonL000-100.02000—18:35
53W. JohnstonC123+250.821127118:30
16J. PavelskiC011000.081307118:21
20R. SuterD000-210.05122—17:19
24R. HintzC101020.280207016:46
23E. LindellD011+320.02150—16:44
14J. BennL123+351.202005016:11
95M. DucheneC112+130.800104315:14
91T. SeguinC202+230.791006714:49
27M. MarchmentL101+120.82000—14:02
11L. StankovenC011030.23020012:47
12R. FaksaC000-220.201105312:47
18S. SteelC000-220.07000012:30
15C. SmithC000-130.43110010:25
5N. LundkvistD000-220.07010—08:00
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)38344.8953.67-0.3360:00

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).