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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Dallas Stars
4
Final/OTTV ALT, BSSW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 5-4 in overtime, Nathan MacKinnon scoring at 3:40. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 3:40 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — COL 4.3, DAL 4.3; shots on goal were COL 34, DAL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 28 of 32 (.875); Scott Wedgewood stopped 29 of 34 (.853), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Drouin (2 G), 2. Tyler Seguin (2 G), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    J. Drouin2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin2 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL1121721213534
DALDAL192131901432

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    E. Dadonov(9)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.27win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:57
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(21)
    M. Wood (6), J. Johnson (6)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:44

2nd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(12)
    M. Duchene (22), M. Marchment (15)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:28
  2. DAL
    J. Pavelski(15)PPG
    M. Duchene (23), M. Heiskanen (23)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    10:10
  3. COL
    J. Drouin(7)PPG
    D. Toews (17), N. MacKinnon (42)
    snapxG 0.63win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-3
    19:48

3rd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(13)
    M. Marchment (16)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-4
    9:07
  2. COL
    J. Drouin(8)
    J. Johnson (7)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-4
    9:45
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(20)
    L. O'Connor (8), C. Makar (37)
    deflectedxG 0.28win prob +42 ptsVideo
    4-4
    18:51

Overtime

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(22)
    D. Toews (18)
    snapxG 0.30win prob +51 ptsVideo
    5-4
    3:40

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:33DALThomas Harley · Holdingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 14:15DALRoope Hintz · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

2nd

  • 4:48COLRoss Colton · Holdingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 9:22COLJack Johnson · High sticking double minordrawn by Miro Heiskanen4 min
  • 18:17DALEvgenii Dadonov · Hookingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, OT 3:40 — COL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Dadonov · Goal · xG 0.27R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.25W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.22R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.22M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.21T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.21W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.19J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.18J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.18T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.18J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.17J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.17W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.16T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.16J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.15J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.13J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.13T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.13M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.13M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.09J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.09E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.07J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.07M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.06W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.05W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.05T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.04J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.03J. Hanley · Missed · xG 0.03E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.01T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.00R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.00J. Hakanpää · On goal · xG 0.00J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.00J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.00R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 4.3 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
4.35 G
All situations
4 G4.3
2.64 G
Even strength
3 G3.7
1.71 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL50%50%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.25 – 4.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
34
Shots on goal
32
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
16
22
Blocked shots
14
7
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
96M. RantanenR101+240.660004028:29
8C. MakarD011030.15050—27:38
29N. MacKinnonC213+471.010205626:47
27J. DrouinL202+240.75100—24:57
13V. NichushkinR000050.96200—24:16
7D. ToewsD022+120.08210—23:29
49S. GirardD000+100.09340—20:32
42J. MansonD000-110.03910—18:20
3J. JohnsonD022000.00054—15:50
28M. WoodL011-130.35000—15:31
4B. ByramD000-100.01010—12:54
12R. JohansenC000-100.002005312:48
20R. ColtonC000-220.102125012:11
25L. O'ConnorR011+120.110105011:39
94J. KivirantaL000000.00100—09:39
22F. OlofssonL000000.001105009:32
11A. CoglianoC000-110.0500010008:15
56K. MacDermidL000000.00000—04:48
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)32284.8754.31+0.3162:17

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).