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Flames at Jets
NHL

Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Winnipeg Jets
▸5
FinalTV SNW, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Jets led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Daniil Miromanov's goal at 10:34 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 29% to 47%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 4.2 to 1.7; shots on goal were CGY 33, WPG 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Dustin Wolf stopped 40 of 44 (.909), 0.8 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 31 of 33 (.939). Three stars: 1. Gabriel Vilardi (3 G), 2. Josh Morrissey (2 A), 3. MacKenzie Weegar (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    G. Vilardi3 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    J. Morrissey2 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Weegar1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY18115010233
WPGWPG217116212545

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Weegar(19)PPG
    J. Huberdeau (36), A. Kuzmenko (19)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:35
  2. WPG
    G. Vilardi(17)PPG
    K. Connor (24), J. Morrissey (53)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    12:59
  3. WPG
    N. Ehlers(23)
    C. Perfetti (19)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:56

2nd period

  1. CGY
    D. Miromanov(3)
    M. Weegar (29)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    10:34
  2. WPG
    T. Toffoli(31)PPG
    V. Namestnikov (24), N. Ehlers (33)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-3
    15:35

3rd period

  1. WPG
    G. Vilardi(18)
    J. Morrissey (54), N. Pionk (24)
    batxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-4
    8:44
  2. WPG
    G. Vilardi(19)EN
    S. Monahan (31), M. Scheifele (43)
    wristxG 0.93Video
    2-5
    18:56

Penalties

CGY 21 PIM·WPG 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:04WPGNikolaj Ehlers · Trippingdrawn by Yegor Sharangovich2 min
  • 10:37CGYWalker Duehr · High stickingdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min
  • 11:09CGYKevin Rooney · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Vilardi2 min

2nd

  • 4:32WPGNeal Pionk · Holdingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 14:17CGYNikita Okhotiuk · Hookingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 19:16CGYMartin Pospisil · Elbowingdrawn by Josh Morrissey5 min
  • 19:16CGYMartin Pospisil · Game misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCGY goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Daniil Miromanov, 2nd 10:34 — CGY 29% → 47%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Vilardi · Goal · xG 0.93G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.20M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.16G. Vilardi · Goal · xG 0.15T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.14G. Vilardi · Missed · xG 0.13K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.11V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.10S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.10N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.10K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.09S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.09G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.09G. Vilardi · Missed · xG 0.09G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.09G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.08G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.08S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.08K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.08C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.08J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.08G. Vilardi · Goal · xG 0.07T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.07S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.07S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.06M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.05T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.05K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.05M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.05M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.04K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.03D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.03G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.03T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02A. Iafallo · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.02T. Toffoli · Goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02C. Perfetti · Missed · xG 0.01A. Iafallo · On goal · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.01D. Samberg · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dillon · Missed · xG 0.00C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG5 G · 4.2 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsWPG
1.72 G
All situations
4 G4.2
1.11 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.51 G
Power play
2 G1.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY24%76%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.64 – 3.19

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsWPG
33
Shots on goal
45
41%
Faceoffs
59%
1/2
Power play
2/4
21
Penalty minutes
4
38
Hits
24
12
Blocked shots
14
6
Giveaways
11
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
52M. WeegarD112-150.15220—26:44
4R. AnderssonD000-130.03130—25:23
11M. BacklundC000-110.011003320:37
96A. KuzmenkoL011040.49000—20:07
62D. MiromanovD101040.12120—19:47
91N. KadriC000-130.281006418:34
17Y. SharangovichC000-200.000103018:13
58O. KylingtonD000-120.03200—16:59
10J. HuberdeauL011-100.000005015:52
28N. OkhotiukD000010.02412—15:04
20B. ColemanL000-230.09300—14:56
21K. RooneyC000+110.064022913:28
94B. PachalD000-100.02220—13:21
15D. HuntL000-110.10800—12:32
76M. PospisilC000+120.114015010:48
27M. CoronatoR000-110.02010—09:59
18A. GreerL000010.10300—09:56
71W. DuehrR000010.03202—09:31
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32D. Wolf(L)44404.9093.23-0.7758:01

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).